Flashback: Boeing’s 2012 737 Replacement Study

Once upon a time, before a single 787 barrel had been wrapped, Boeing let itself dream big about the future of the 737. Not to say that the big dreaming stopped, but it was just over taken by the engineering need on 787 and a massively growing 737 backlog between 2006-2008 that pushed the need for a replacement to the early part of the next decade.

According to industrial sources, Boeing has accelerated the pace of the 737RS study effort and even plans to make its initial pass on prospective supplier teams by mid-2006. The RS/Y1 concept is based around an all-composite 787-like structure, fly-by-wire, more-electric system architecture, EVS-integrated avionics flightdeck, and a cabin cross-section “wider than A320”. Aerodynamic improvements include a longer span wing, single-slotted flaps, raked and blended-winglet wingtip options, blended fin root and 787-like Section 41 (nose and flightdeck).

Airbus launched its own NSR (new single aisle replacement) study and reached similar conclusions about what a 2012 narrowbody replacement could provide for gains in efficiency.

Initial results from both NSR and RS/Y1 studies have, apparently, been less than stellar. Acting completely independently, the two studies have come up with similar results for their individual concepts, which fall far short of the ideal targets set for the 2012 timeframe airliner.

Airbus NSR Phase 1 results, for example, are believed to have indicated that if all the advanced technology (available and considered mature and sufficiently low-risk for entry into service in 2012) was poured into the aircraft, the best specific fuel consumption reduction would be 4%, the best operating cost reduction 3% and the best emissions reduction would be 5%. The numbers are also said to be within 0.5-1% for all parameters for the initial phases of Boeing’s RS/Y1.

These results therefore mean the aggregate benefit of all the combined results indicates a maximum efficiency improvement of only around 9-10% over the current A320/737 models. Given the estimated $7 billion development pricetag (airframe, systems and engine technology) involved in the NSR, insiders say Airbus in particular is asking if the venture is “too much, too soon”.

Then, like now, the engine technology was the driving factor in getting narrowbody efficiency gains of 20%. However, as Boeing and Airbus target 15% improvement with re-engined 737s and A320s, next generation engine technology found in the LEAP-X, PW1000G and RB285 has provided a 50% boost in efficiency expectations from the RS/Y1 & NSR original studies.