Wednesday, December 1, 2010. The day the duopoly died.
Make no mistake about it, the Bombardier has been successful on at least one indisputable point. Airbus and Boeing have been forced to respond to the CSeries.
Today’s launch of the A320neo is the direct result of the CSeries which now shares a common engine in the PW1000G, and marks the end Boeing and Airbus’s war of inches, alternating 52-48% shares of the marketplace.
If you’re looking for an appropriate historical comparison, you need only look to November 17, 1993, when Boeing gave the greenlight to the 737-700 with an order from Southwest, setting up the battle between Boeing’s Next Generation 737 and the Airbus A320 that has stretched nearly two decades.
A comfortable duopoly was content to increase narrowbody production rates to feed demand, looking across the Atlantic watching its chief competitor uncomfortable and unwilling to undertake the significant investment required to deliver double digit improvements in fuel burn that airlines were loudly clamoring for. That changed today.
John Leahy says triumphantly the A320neo kills the business case for the CSeries, though there’s a real risk for Airbus that they not only failed to kill the upstart narrowbody, but may have confirmed Bombardier’s business model.
Of the A320 family, The A321neo will undoubtedly benefit the most from a 15% improvement in fuel burn, boosting the range into 757-200 territory and for the first time providing a near-replacement to the aging workhorse of US airlines. Though the A321 doesn’t compete with the CSeries, nor does the 150-seat A320, which will have CFM Leap-X or PW1100G engines available in spring 2016.
There’s an important gap between the larger CS300, which first delivers in 2014, and the A319neo, which has an estimated entry into service in Spring 2017. The A318, the direct competitor to the CS100 may eventually get a new engine, but that is far from certain.
Airlines and lessors who played ‘wait and see‘ on what Airbus and Boeing would do before making a decision on CSeries now have two airframes to compare side-by-side. Yes, one is much farther along in its development, though the CS100, CS300 and A319neo all have the confirmed institutional backing of their respective manufacturers.
Bombardier, Airbus and Boeing will soon find out if the 110 to 149 seat market is as quiet as it is because there’s no market in that segment or because no airframe could perform the mission in an optimal way. Though according to US Department of Transportation Form 41 data, recent load factors of 84% and 83% on Airtran’s 717s and Delta’s MD-88s, respectively, may give some indication of the viability of an airframe in this segment.
Bombardier has a hill to climb to meet its performance and weight targets on the CS100, while simultaneously convincing new customers it will be on time, goals Boeing and Airbus missed on the 787 and A380, spooking the same operators the Canadian airframer is hoping to convince.
As Airbus wags its finger at the new entrant pushing into its market space, the European airframer is on the opposite side of a familiar equation, having once been the outsider, it’s now one of two twin Goliaths playing defense.
While the 90 orders accumulated to date represent a modest foundation for the CSeries, the A320neo effectively sets the scoreboard back to zero. The marketplace now has some decisions to make.
The real race begins today and 2011 is the battleground.
Photo Credit Airbus
This post was originally published to the internet between 2007 and 2012. Links, images, and embedded media from that era may no longer function as intended.
This post originally appeared at Flightglobal.com from 2007 to 2012.