My biggest take away on the Airbus dossier is that the European company sees the Boeing 787-9 as the killer app. Rarely, has the first generation iteration of a Boeing jetliner been delivered in great volume.
The 727-100, 737-100, 747-100, 767-200 and 777-200 did not define their respective programs. With the exception of the 757-200, first generation airliners aren’t largely produced.
Take the 767-300ER for example. That aircraft accounts for more than
half of the 950+ 767 deliveries during the production run. The 767-200ER
runs a distant second with 121 deliveries. The -300ER entered service
in 1988, six years after the first 767-200 delivery.
Boeing sold the 787-8 as 2nd/3rd generation mature technology (a la 777-300ER) in a 1st generation package, which explains its sales success. Full technological maturity by EIS, it’s a very attractive offer. The reality is that 1st generation technology is still 1st generation and Boeing has already said that the 787-9 will be the biggest recipient of Boeing’s 787 lessons learnt.
With Boeing, Airbus, Embraer and Bombardier all forecasting an up-gauge in the overall size of aircraft, the 787-9 with more seats, will likely be the beneficiary of this trend for Boeing. The 900 orders booked currently split largely for the 787-8, though customers contractually have the option to switch variants.
I’m willing to bet that the 787 orderbook balance will dash to the nine.
This post was originally published to the internet between 2007 and 2012. Links, images, and embedded media from that era may no longer function as intended.
This post originally appeared at Flightglobal.com from 2007 to 2012.