Author: Jon Ostrower

The A350 XWB is beginning to take shape as program suppliers are being selected in earnest. Airbus is expecting that 90% of suppliers for the A350 should be locked down before March of 2008.

The last week has brought the program two new, very significant, program suppliers.

The first, a billion dollar contract for the fuel and hydraulic systems, went to Parker Aerospace of Irvine, CA. The contract is notable not only for the systems involved, but the physical location of the company. Airbus has sought to work with dollar-based suppliers since the Euro has gained significant strength over the US Dollar causing significant financial hardship for the European airframer. Moving work outside the Euro-zone gives Airbus the breathing room it has sought over the last few months.

The second massive contract, which is for the flight deck and avionics package, went to Thales (pronounced Tah-les). The contract is valued at a staggering $2.9 billion over the next twenty years. The relaunch of the A350 XWB during the Farnborough Air Show in 2006 set into motion a complete redesign of the new composite long range twin. Airbus unveiled it’s new next generation flight deck which consists of six 15-inch LCD displays and standard Heads Up Displays back in September as part of that redesign.

Correction: The LCD displays are only 15 inches.

Image Courtesy Airbus SAS

Airbus has already chosen several major systems suppliers for the XWB including:

Goodrich – Engine Nacelle and Thrust Reverser
Honeywell – Auxiliary Power Unit and Air Management System
Moog – Primary Flight Control Actuation System
Messier-Dowty and Liebherr-Aerospace – Landing Gear
Rockwell Collins – Trimmable Horizontal Stabilizer Actuator
Rolls Royce – Engines

Early indications of the final design have begun to emerge as well, with the definition of the redesigned nosed being released back in September.

Image Courtesy Flight International Magazine

The detailed definition of the aircraft is expected to be frozen later this year. The wings are likely to feature a sweep slightly less than the original concept design of 35 degrees. Another central question to the A350 XWB program is the inclusion of General Electric engines on all variants of the new Airbus. Airbus and GE have been in negotiation about adding a second engine along side the Trent XWB by Rolls Royce. GE is contractually obligated to Boeing not to develop an engine that would compete with its popular GE90 which flies on the 777. With questions popping up about the fuel consumption of the Trent 1000 engines (a close cousin of the Trent XWB) operators are likely pressing Airbus hard for a second choice. In an interview last week, Allan McArtor, Chairman of Airbus North America, said, “We’re disappointed that GE hasn’t joined the program yet.” Adding, “We’re confident that issues are being worked through. It hasn’t happened yet, but we believe it will.”

This week’s week in review has a little something new inside of it. Call it an informational (royalty free) music interlude. As always, I’m looking for feedback and comments on what people think. This week’s was put together a bit quicker due to time constraints and in a less ideal environment, so please bear with me.

Script below the fold:

The MSN014, the first A380 for QANTAS was seen taxiing under its own power today for the first time at a very wet and rainy Toulouse. The aircraft, F-WWSK, should undertake its maiden flight shortly. By comparison, the first taxi tests for F-WWSH, MSN011, the first A380 for Emirates, took place roughly a week prior to the aircraft’s first flight in early September.

Photos Courtesy David Barrie

Oh yeah, and just found this. Apparently, you can now book for the first Emirates A380 flight on October 1 from Dubai to JFK.

See the complete production update.

A veteran engineer who has spent a lot of time around the 787 Dreamliner remarked to me late last fall that Boeing just needs to stop and “listen to the airplane.”

Today, we saw the first signs that Boeing is beginning to listen to its 787, and this is a good thing. Both the airline and financial communities are rightfully angry about a lack of details surrounding production targets for the next two years. When building guidance forecasts, this point of ambiguity does not help Boeing’s case. Though it is impossible to divorce this from the health of the program as a whole, Boeing must remember that doing work out of sequence was what got them in trouble in the first place.

Basing the program over the next year around flight testing and certification, rather than jumping ahead to production ramp up, allows the aircraft, the processes and the management of the supply chain to mature on a smaller scale that sets Boeing up for long term success with its production ramp up.

If the ramp up had continued as planned, any design modifications that would have come out of flight testing would have had to be applied to already complete aircraft waiting for certification on the flight line in Everett or stored in the desert. This is a tedious and costly process. By allowing flight test to be the core of this program, Boeing will save enormous energy by giving retrofit design change responsibility largely to the partners themselves.

However, even before these eventualities can be entertained, Boeing must ensure that its suppliers are able to perform at the required production levels in the first place, a goal that currently appears far out of reach for some.

Taking the significant step forward by placing “additional operational experts” in Everett and at supplier partners, Boeing is once again returning to its roots by restoring the value to skill and experience in this program. This is an incredibly crucial step that will likely yield immediate dividends. Up until now, suppliers had been struggling with a workforce that, in the words of one engineer, requires “an aerospace state of mind [that] just isn’t here.” Boeing built its aerospace preeminence on valuing skill and experience. Making sure partners realize that same lesson is absolutely essential.

The most painful part of this program is yet still ahead, as the production schedule and significant supplier questions are fleshed out. The answers will likely not be pleasant ones and they do need to come soon.

Increased transparency is something that has been sought after from Boeing for many months, and Scott Carson and Pat Shanahan took one very large step in the right direction today. While I originally felt that disclosure of a comprehensive recovery plan including specific timelines and goals were absolutely essential for this call, I am left feeling that the transparency created by today’s announcement is actually found in not overreaching.

Boeing still has a long way to go in buying back its credibility on the 787, but that starts with realistic goals and forthright assessments of the capabilities of this program.

Image Courtesy The Boeing Company

This will be today’s running thread for the delay announcement today. Leave your thoughts, question here as the news develops today.

12:18 PM: Post call podcast with Addison Schonland and Scott Hamilton.

11:27 AM: Carson says that production ramp up and dealing with suppliers will come later in the quarter and the primary focus will be on Airplanes 1-6. This is VERY significant, it appears that Boeing has hit the stop button on airplane 7 and on. Gaining footing on the flight test airplanes is the first priority.

11:18 AM: Shanahan says that “parts are not the pacing item.” Reconciling part documentation has been, “onerous and time consuming” This leads directly back to supply chain management and the VELOCITY software tasked with managing all the parts in the program.

11:10 AM: Boeing is placing “additional operational experts” in Everett and at supplier partners. This is really a first step to putting skill and experience along side a large newly trained workforce.

11:01 AM: The conference call is about to get started. I won’t be liveblogging on a stenography basis, but rather providing thoughts as the call develops.

10:28 AM: The LCF has just left Everett for Nagoya. It will return tomorrow or Friday with the wings for Dreamliner Two.

9:35 AM: Just wrapped up a podcast with Scott Hamilton and Addison Schonland at IAG on the delay. Another podcast will follow the 11 AM conference call.

8:45 AM: Boeing officially announces that first flight has been pushed to by the end of the 2nd quarter.

Boeing Shifts Schedule for 787 First Flight
Wednesday January 16, 8:45 am ET
– First delivery now expected in early 2009
– No impact on 2007 financials; no material impact on 2008 earnings guidance

EVERETT, Wash., Jan. 16 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ — Boeing (NYSE: BA – News) today announced that first flight of the 787 has been moved from the end of the first quarter of this year to around the end of the second quarter to provide additional time to complete assembly of the first airplane. Deliveries are now expected to begin in early 2009, rather than late 2008.

“The fundamental design and technologies of the 787 remain sound,” said Scott Carson, president and CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “However, we continue to be challenged by start-up issues in our factory and in our extended global supply-chain.”

Carson said that while solid progress has been made on the assembly of Airplane #1, the rate at which jobs are being completed has not improved sufficiently to maintain the current schedule.

Boeing will delay first flight of its 787 Dreamliner three more months, according to independently confirmed sources inside the program.

FlightBlogger has confirmed that Boeing is expected to release the announcement of the delay early Wednesday morning. The announcement is expected to move the first flight date to have Dreamliner One or Two making its maiden flight by June 30, 2008, which is the close of the second quarter of the year.

Boeing has declined to comment to Flight International or any other media outlet on the potential delay announcement.

Details of the revised power on, first flight, certification and delivery targets are expected to be released at the official announcement Wednesday.

Since last week’s report by FlightBlogger that Dreamliner One had slipped by three weeks, schedules now indicate a the aircraft is a now a full month behind where Boeing had hoped it would be at this point in its revised schedule.

The pending delay announcement leaves open the question as to whether or not Dreamliner Two will be the first 787 to fly before Dreamliner One which was originally planned to make its first flight in September 2007.

According to sources in Charleston, Dreamliner Two, which is still largely spread out at supplier factories around the world awaiting delivery is, “farther along than Airplane One” is right now in Everett.

With final assembly of Dreamliner Two set to begin at the end of January, those who are working with the aircraft are optimistic about the speed in which the aircraft can be made flight ready.

The delay is expected to once again transform the delivery schedule which originally was supposed to have 109 787s in the hands of airline customers by the end of 2009.

According to the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Boeing will announce that no 787s will be delivered during 2008. Japan’s All Nippon Airways was originally expected to receive its first 787 (Dreamliner Seven) in May of 2008. This was changed in October when a six month delay pushed the first delivery to November or December of 2008. The October delay pushed the planned 2008 delivery of 30-35 aircraft to 2008, affecting fifteen airline customers.

This latest delay will undoubtedly affect not only those original fifteen recipients, but many of the remaining 40 customers who have ordered 787 aircraft.

One industry source tells FlightBlogger that airline customers began to be notified about the delay this past weekend.

Along with the airlines, the program’s suppliers are expected to feel an even greater impact. When Boeing brought its risk sharing partners to collaborate in the design and manufacture of the 787 Dreamliner, contracts stipulated that these suppliers would not be paid until the 787 was certified.

The Chicago Tribune estimated that in December, just days before the last official program update, that, “three major suppliers face a total cash shortfall of $1.2 billion next year because their payments from Boeing have been delayed along with the initial 787 deliveries.”

The shortfall is likely to grow with this latest delay, putting significant strain on what is arguably the most complex industrial supply chain ever conceived. The Tribune also reported that as many as five of the biggest partners were seeking to renegotiate the terms of their contract to alleviate the cash flow burden of the continuing delays.

Stay with FlightBlogger for continuing coverage of the 787 Dreamliner program delay announcement throughout the day on Wednesday.

This was given to me by a very close friend tonight, and I thought it was just a perfect contrast to what is likely heavy news ahead.

Click to Enlarge

The Wall Street Journal has published a news alert stating that sources close to the 787 program have said that the first flight of the 787 may be delayed until June and an official announcement is coming soon.

Developments to follow.

6:33 PM: Asked to comment on reports about the delay, Northwest says, “Boeing has notified Northwest that they will be making an announcement tomorrow.” Northwest is deferring all comment until after the announcement is made.

6:13 PM: Sources tell FlightBlogger that airline customers began to be notified about the delay this past weekend.

5:03 PM: James Wallace of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer has confirmed the delay according to his sources.

UPDATED, 1 p.m.:

Boeing will announce the latest delay Wednesday morning before the markets open, sources confirm. Boeing will say it will not be able to complete flight tests in order to deliver planes this year. So no 787 deliveries in 2008. It also will say it can’t ramp up production fast enough to deliver 109 jets by the end of 2009, my sources say. This development is significant and will have a major impact on the stock price. Boeing shares are already tumbling late this afternoon in response to a story about the latest 787 delay that was just posted by the Wall Street Journal.

Boeing executives will hold a conference call with analysts and media early Wednesday morning to explain the latest delay.

4:46 PM: All indications point to a potential announcement of some sort as early as tomorrow. The WSJ story is the first to directly target the 109 airframe delivery by the end of 2009 with concrete details.

According sources in Charleston, Dreamliner Two is being prepared for delivery by the end of this month. The level of assembly and completion of Dreamliner Two is “farther along than Airplane One” is right now in Everett. This leaves open the question as to whether or not Dreamliner Two will be the first 787 to fly.

4:20 PM: Boeing is telling reporters that the official comment is that, “We are declining comment.”

On the heels of this morning’s A330-200F announcement in Mobile, AL, I had an opportunity to sit down with Airbus North America Chairman Allan McArtor and Chairman and CEO of EADS North America, Ralph Crosby. We discussed a number of topics during the phone interview on both the commercial and defense fronts.

I started off with a question about potential growth in Mobile that went beyond just the A330 Freighter. Airbus is targeting 10 A330/A340 a month coming off the line by 2009 or 2010. In addition, they’ve said they also want 13 A350s per month in Toulouse by 2015. The last piece here is that Airbus has also said that they the A330 is a complimentary aircraft in the widebody offering and they, are going to continue producing the popular twin at the same time as the A330. The long preface, brought me to this question, is there enough room at Toulouse to assemble both the A330 and A350 at the pace Airbus wants, and if not, would the A330 passenger model end up on a final assembly line in Mobile?

McArtor felt it was an, “Interesting theory and…it was always possible.” He agreed that, “there would need to be additional capacity created for the A350 and long range A330/A340…and that [Airbus] hasn’t tried looking into it yet.”

I then asked about the status of negotiations with General Electric about bringing a second engine offering to the A350. This has been a sticking point for potential A350/787 customer Air France/KLM which requires all its aircraft to be powered by General Electric engines.

Mr. McArtor, started by saying, “We’re disappointed that GE hasn’t joined the program yet.” Adding, “We’re confident that issues are being worked through. It hasn’t happened yet, but we believe it will.”

When asked if the discussions were being held for a power plant for all variants or just the -800 and -900, Mr. McArtor confirmed that, “We’re looking at supplying an engine for all variants.”