Author: Jon Ostrower

With two and a half years to go before ZB021, the first production 787-9, is handed over to  Air New Zealand at the end of 2013, Boeing is advancing forward on detailed design of the larger 250 to 290-seat Dreamliner, while it appears to be quietly laying the foundation for the third variant, the yet unlaunched 787-10. 

First, Boeing has again increased the maximum take-off weight of the 787-9, though it’s not entirely clear that the increase to 553,000lbs is driven entirely by regaining payload range capability due to an increase in airframe empty weight. Rather, one industry official indicates that the MTOW figure is be identical for the conceptual stretched 787-10. The increase actually appears to build a design bridge to the 787-10.

The same MTOW figures are indicative of structural similarity of the “simple stretch” -10, which hopes to fly 300 passengers a range of 6,900 to 7,000nm. If nothing else, the precedent for identical MTOW figures in Boeing stretches is found in the 777-200ER and 777-300, each with the basic takeoff roll weight capability of 582,000lbs.

While the 787-9 is starting to show signs of readiness for the -10, it still appears the larger jet is still “a long ways away” with hints of no earlier than 2015 and no later than 2017 starting to come in focus. 

Quietly tucked into the changing MTOW of the 787-9 is a further 44gal reduction in the aircraft’s fuel capacity. While not a very significant reduction when compared to the overall 33,384gal capacity, the amount now sits 144gal below the 787-8. This is a small figure, but 787-9 is set to deliver a 500nm range improvement over the -8 with more structure and payload flying on a wing with an identical wing planform as the -8. In a February 2010 interview, vice president of airplane programs, Pat Shanahan offered these thoughts on the optimized design flying farther on less fuel with more payload and structure:

That’s beauty of engineering, we’re not going to extend the length, add the same planform and decrease the range. So, the team, through understanding the performance of the -8, optimizing the configuration, they found a way to get the range and the extra payload.

All this talk of the 787-9 and -10 is – first – entirely dependent on the 787-8 and its final certified configuration establishing a transparent baseline to work from. That final configuration, said Spirit AeroSystems CEO Jeff Turner in his company’s earnings call last week, will make the process of designing for the -9 considerably easier: 

The phrase “simple stretch” tends to be a terrible misnomer, but is intended to convey the idea that an airframe’s modifications are generally limited to the fuselage and leverage capabilities already built into the smaller model, rather than optimize the airframe for equal payload and range performance. The 787-9 is made up of two 10ft stretches of Sections 43 and 46, placing all the structural growth into the center fuselage which is integrated in Charleston, already equipped with tooling for second model.

Industry officials say that design of the -10 is slightly smaller today than it was in 2007, but may still require a stretch of not just the 43 and 46 sections, but the 47 as well. The 2007 design stretched Sections 41, 43, 46 and 47. As the program seeks a low-cost investment to take on the Airbus A330-300, capital costs for tooling will undoubtedly be an important factor in keeping the investment low, stretching as few sections as possible is central to this say company sources. 

One potentially less obvious challenge is stretching the center fuselage so it still fits into the Dreamlifter. A 2008 diagram of the then-Global Aeronautica facility illustrated three types of centre fuselages on the pulse assembly line. Placing the full stretch in the center fuselage (preventing its air transport), could potentially make Charleston the base for the 787-10, saving tooling costs at Spirit and the nearby aft-fuselage fabrication facility.

The US Federal Aviation Administration granted extended operations (ETOPS) certification to the Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 (Photos) allowing the engine to be operated 330 minutes from a diversion landing field for a Boeing 787. Meanwhile, ZA004, is parked at Boeing Field and being retrofitted with the latest Trent 1000 ‘Package B’ improvements that will bring specific fuel consumption to within 1% of the originally planned specification.

Also, Boeing confirmed late last week that the test fleet had been fully upgraded to operating the latest electrical system software that was developed following the fire aboard ZA002 in November. The test fleet had been flying with an interim patched version, and ZA006, the last to be fitted with the software dubbed v10.4C, completed the installation in late April.

A top vice president at Boeing’s biggest narrowbody customer, Southwest Airlines, says the end of the decade is “too long to wait” for an all-new airplane to replace its 737 Classics, but giving the US airframer an idea of what it wants will have to wait as the carrier turns its attention to merging with Atlanta-based AirTran Airways.

“We’ve got fleet of 200 airplanes out there at some point we’re going to have to do something with and we can’t wait until 2020,” says Southwest Airlines vice president operations coordination center, Jeff Martin in regard to the carrier’s aging block of 737-300s and -500s.

Martin spoke to ATI on the sidelines of the Air Transport World’s Eco-Aviation conference in Washington, DC.

Boeing has said it plans to provide additional clarity at June’s Paris air show on whether it plans to proceed with development of a mid-decade re-engining of the 737 or proceed with an all-new aircraft with an entry into service pegged for 2019 or 2020, though direct input from Southwest, suggests Martin, may not yet available until next 2012 at the earliest.

With its recently completed acquisition of AirTran, Southwest is turning its attention to integrating the two carriers, a departure from its historical methodical organic growth, which includes – for the first time – seeing if it can operate multiple types in its history with the introduction of the Boeing 717 along side its 737s. 

Martin says the AirTran acquisition has “changed our whole philosophy” now that Southwest has jumped to a multiple fleets, which “perks up everybody’s ears” eliminating the sole barrier to entry for manufacturers other than Boeing to sell aircraft to the carrier.

“We’re going to manage multiple fleets, but what we’re really going to look at is who can bring us 25% efficiency,” he says, adding that a re-engined 737 Next Generation aircraft won’t deliver that benefit over Southwest’s 737 Classics, despite a willingness to look at that option.

“We’ve squeezed the turnip, there’s nothing left in the NG. It now goes back to the airframe and the engine. We’ll look at re-engining, but we’re waiting for someone to tell us what [Boeing is] going to do,” says Martin of the incremental improvement it has sought through technology updates to its 737s, including having installed winglets on 80% its 737 fleet.

“Once we get through AirTran we’ve got another year’s work I think then we’ll come up and start looking around and determine what we’re going to do,” he says of selecting a new narrowbody. “Right now, it’s all hands on deck for the integration, but we know we’ve got a subfleet of airplanes that we need to address and that’s the classics and there’s 200 of them.”

If Boeing does move forward with an all-new narrowbody to replace the venerable 737 at the end of the decade, it aims to offer 20% improvement in fuel efficiency and 10% better cash operating costs over today’s 737-700 offering.

The challenge to the airframer already believes it can deliver 15% fuel burn improvement with a new engine and a modest investment, but the cost of advancing fuel efficiency an additional 5% places the development cost skyrocketing with an all-new jet.

Southwest’s $175 million investment to move from round dial displays on the 737-700 flight deck displays to the primary flight display/navigation display (PFD/ND) arrangement for precision navigation has also allowed the low-cost carrier to expand its search beyond Boeing for an aircraft to replace the 122-seat 737-500 and 137-seat 737-300.

“From what I had told [CEO Gary Kelly] the automation changes that we’re making on the flight deck and going PFD/ND opens up any fleet type we want. Not just Boeing, but we understand all cockpits look like this now,” says Martin. “We had placed ourselves on an island flying round dials without automation, so this will provide us benefit when we go into the marketplace.

“We won’t have to go to someone and say “can you re-program the software to make this look like a [737-200], oh can you disconnect the auto throttles and VNAV we don’t use all those things.” People would have laughed at us.”

Though despite this “level playing field” for the Bombardier CSeries arriving in late 2013, Airbus A320neo first delivering in October 2015 and potentially even an offering from Embraer, the strong relationship with Boeing, adds Martin, is well intact.

Adding, the need to replace its aging fleet of 737 Classics combined with Boeing’s timing for a new narrowbody may be incompatible for Southwest, but that has not disqualified its sole aircraft vendor for the past four decades from the competition.

“We’ll give them a shot just like everybody else, main thing is as any partner you have to communicate with them exactly what you want. Not sure we have on our side have fully defined that for them.”

Exactly what Southwest wants in a new Boeing narrowbody aircraft will also be guided by the 2012 introduction of the larger 737-800 into the airline’s fleet, a boost of 40 seats over its 737-700. The first 737-800 equipped for extended operations (ETOPS) is set to be delivered to the carrier in March 2012.

“We haven’t told [Boeing] what size we would want yet, we haven’t defined that yet,” says Martin. “So, in their defense it’s pretty hard when the customer says well “we think we want this many seats, we think we want that many”. Well I don’t blame them, how do you design to that? So it goes back to that, we’ll know more after we have the -800 in service for a while.”

Boeing begins month-long 747 assembly line hold
Jon Ostrower/Washington, DC

This piece was originally authored late Thursday for Air Transport Intelligence

Boeing will hold the 747-8 line in place from 6 May until 7 June, to allow it to catch up on design changes as it introduces the new -8I passenger model into its production system, though the company’s 2011 delivery target remains unchanged despite evaluating an effect on its delivery schedule.

“The process of starting up the regular production of the 747-8 Intercontinental has created some challenges best addressed at this early stage in the ramp-up,” says Boeing.

Boeing is currently ramping up 747-8 output from 1.5 to 2 aircraft per month, with the goal of reaching that target in 2012, and will hold the line from advancing over the next month in favour of incorporating design changes from flight test and completing unfinished work inside the factory.

In recent weeks, program sources say the number of assembly tasks, or jobs, has continuously crept up, even as additional machinists have been moved to the factory floor to tackle the unfinished work.

Despite holding in place the line for a calendar month, Boeing still intends to deliver between 12 and 20 747-8s in 2011, the first freighter mid-year and the first passenger model by year end.

The company told the Seattle Times it is “evaluating the effect on the delivery schedule” for those aircraft to follow after first 747-8F delivery in 2011, but tells Flightglobal: “We’re staying close to our customers to make sure they understand our manufacturing and delivery plans.”

Atlas Air, the largest 747-8F customer with 12 on order, said in its 3 May earnings statement it planed to “receive and place into service three 747-8Fs from Boeing in the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2011″ though the cargo operated added, “To date, we do not have a final delivery schedule agreement with Boeing.” 

Boeing has rolled out 20 747-8s to date, including two -8I test aircraft (RC001 & RC021), and five -8F test aircraft (RC501, RC521, RC522, RC503 & RC523), all currently participating in flight test. The balance are production freighters now occupying spots on the company’s Everett, Washington flight line.

Including the final fuselage and wing body join position, Boeing has another three 747-8s in the final assembly process, while accommodating additional aircraft in various states of assembly from wing and fuselage build up, to systems installation and wing stub join spread across the factory’s 40-21 and 40-22 buildings.

“Completing this work in the factory also will ensure that airplanes travel to the flight line in the most complete state possible, and minimize work required on the flight line,” adds Boeing, which plans to use its Global Service & Support facility in San Antonio to conduct refurbishment of its flight test aircraft.

Around April 10, say program sources, the aircraft underwent its certification max brake energy test, which saw the freighter – loaded to its maximum takeoff weight of 975,000lbs – slam on its Goodrich-built carbon brakes just before V1 speed transferring all its generated energy into the ground-down disk brakes, heating them to more than 2,500 degrees Fahrenheit (1,400 C). Boeing says the aircraft was able to stop 700ft shorter than first anticipated.

Boeing published its own video (above) of the test on Wednesday.

Certification requirements prohibit emergency services from moving before five minutes after wheel stop to simulate a real-world incident that accounts for dispatch time at an airport. Carbon brakes have made these RTO tests significantly safer over the years as the previous generation of steel brakes would catch fire, posing a greater risk to the crews conducting the tests.

Last night around 10pm the internet – more specifically twitter – exploded with activity around a planned 10:30 speech by President Obama on an unknown topic. We now know that topic was the announcement of the death of Osama bin Laden following a US special forces mission in Abbottabad, Pakistan. When the first news broke, I was in the middle of watching this Stanford Business School lecture by United Airlines CEO Jeff Smisek, which I was preparing for today’s Movie Monday.

Smisek, who is the newly minted CEO of the merged United and Continental, discusses a range of topics during the lecture. Through the lecture, he emphasises how vulnerable the industry is from external shocks, like that we saw on 9/11. Though while those shocks, whether from volcanoes, fuel or attempted underwear bombers, are just the nature of the industry, it is not the thing that defines your business.

What Smisek suggests without explicitly spelling it out is long-term sustainable organizational stability is found from within by transparently understanding the state of your business and creating a work environment where people develop trust. 

There’s been a lot of discussion about the Boeing/IAM/National Labor Relations Board controversy about the Charleston 787 line, and Smisek unwittingly adds his own take on a higher contextual level. Smisek ultimately says that the stability between management and its workforce isn’t about union representation, but the overall relationship between those who participate in building the enterprise:

“And even in a unionised workforce, you can build that relationship with a unionised workforce where the work thinks of themselves as employees of the enterprise first and union members second. If you have it flipped where it’s union first and enterprise second, that’s a path to ruin.”

This week’s Movie Monday runs just shy of 23 minutes. Enjoy!

On Wednesday’s Boeing earnings call, CEO Jim McNerney was asked about the near, middle and long term prospects for achieving profitability on the 787. McNerney answer did not provide much in the way of clarity on the program’s profitability, instead saying those details – including the accounting block size – would be available at first delivery.