Author: Jon Ostrower

KEFLAVIK — When ZA002’s sistership, ZA003 (N787BX), flew into Eglin Air Force Base for hot and cold soak testing in April, flight test crews rolled the 787 into the C-5 Galaxy sized hangar, shut the doors, and turned down the thermostat.

When you’re chasing crosswinds at Keflavik Airport in Iceland, a dial to control the weather is a luxury not afforded the crews accompanying ZA002 (N787EX). For the 787’s first round of international remote testing, flight test teams had to bring their patience and the list of Plan B ground tests should Mother Nature not cooperate.

To give a sense of the moving target that is crosswind testing, as of last Monday, Boeing first planned last week’s 787 event for Thursday to include an opportunity to watch ZA002’s maneuvers from a taxiway next to the runway. As the week rolled on, it became apparent Thursday’s winds wouldn’t materialize and the testing was shifted to Friday afternoon.

By Thursday afternoon, the Friday afternoon crosswind flight had turned into Friday morning crosswind flight with a low probability of a second block in the afternoon. As I waited at the rental car counter at 6:45 AM on Friday having just stepped off an Icelandair 757-300, ZA002 was climbing out of 10,019ft Runway 02 to start nearly five hours of testing that would evaluate the stability and control of the aircraft. The second 787 test aircraft crabbed through the wind performing full stop landings and missed approaches as the METAR showed sustained winds blowing at 27kts and gusting to 39kts.

To put those figures in context, American Airlines allows its pilots to hand fly their largest aircraft up to a 30 knot crosswind component.

For the 787, which has dual heads up displays (HUD), pilots will be able to see the flight path vector without looking down at the primary flight display. For further control in low visibility take off and landing (LVTO) situations, the flight director guidance cube and flightpath vector symbol on the HUD will provide visual cues to pilots. This allows the pilot to fly the apporach by keeping the flight path vector at the desired descent angle for a stable touchdown.

By mid-day, ZA002 was back on the ground and ready to meet the assembled group of Icelandic media and this lone aviation blogger. As we arrived at the aircraft, which was parked at a dedicated spot on the southeastern side of the field, the winds began to pick up again, with spitting rain and winds strong enough to get the Trent 1000s bouncing as the fans looked as though they were spinning at idle.

Our hour with ZA002 was significantly abbreviated as flight test crews scrambled to pre-flight 787 and take advantage of the steady increasing winds. ZA002 with its door closed and chocks pulled waited on the ramp. When you’re waiting for the green light from Mother Nature to fly, sometimes it’s just best to close your eyes for a moment and grab a quick snooze.

While the winds were most certainly howling, they weren’t howling in the right direction, gusting just short of the required crosswind component needed for testing. A couple hundred feet above the runway the winds were sufficient, but as the closer the 787 would have gotten to the grooved asphalt runway, the weaker the winds got curtailing any chance of a second block.

So goes another day in flight test.

ZA002 is expected to ferry back to Boeing Field on September 8.

KEFLAVIK — In a country just 4-5 hours from the US and under three from Europe, Iceland is the alternate airport for the dozens of 747s, 777s, A340s, 767s and A330s that cross the North Atlantic each day.

Yet for the flag carrier that serves the planet’s newest landmass, the 757 is king. The narrowbody workhorse known for its overpowered engines and rocket-like takeoffs is the heart and soul of Icelandair, which flies a mix of 13 two-class wingletted -200s (176 seats), as well as a single stretched -300s (224 seats). While carriers like Continental, Delta, American and even British Airways have found their 757s fill a transatlantic niche, Icelandair has known that one carrier’s niche is another backbone.

While the fleet’s newest aircraft was built in 2002 – its 757-300 (TF-FIX) – the carrier’s fleet of 757-200s are an average of 16 years old. Icelandair CEO Birkir Gudnason was interviewed by Flight International sister publication Airline Business in July and shared his thought on the future of Icelandair’s fleet:

‘On the fleet front, Icelandair is looking at an eventual replacement for its 757s. As many 757 operators know, this is not a straightforward task. “The 757 is the perfect aircraft for our network and location,” says Gudnason. However, in the 2015-2020 timeframe, the phase out of the 757s will need to start. “We are in that process now with an order to be placed in 2012 or 2013,” he says.

Icelandair is looking at aircraft with 150 or more seats and might even split the order between two types as there is no one aircraft that can do the job it wants at present, says Gudnason. One solution could be to lease aircraft from its sister company, Icelease, which is listed as having three Boeing 787 purchase options, but no decision has been made on this possibility, he notes.”

This is no easy decision for a carrier that made its name on O&D traffic through its Keflavik hub. Indirectly, the carrier’s role in the North Atlantic is not entirely different from that chosen by Emirates strategy with Dubai. Connect two distant cities within four to eight hours of its hub while provide easy transfer access and layovers long enough to provide passengers to see and spend money in your country. Yes, there are obvious differences, but the foundations remain the same.

But back to the dilemma facing Icelandair. Much has been said about the 757 replacement market by Boeing and Airbus, with offers of the 737-900ER and A321 to replace the aging single aisle. Though as has frequently been said, the 4000nm range of the 757 with its 201-seats in two classes, has no equivalent in the market today.

Boeing and Airbus are making a hard play to be the 757 replacement
aircraft, but its 737-900ER and A321 still lack the legs to capture the 4000nm market. One
of the benefits of the 757’s design is found in the optimization of its
configuration, specifically the fact that the aircraft doesn’t have to carry
fuel to carry fuel. On, flights between 3,500-4,000nm aircraft carry just the fuel needed for the trip, unlike longer-haul flights that carry extra fuel to accommodate the added fuel weight of the aircraft.

The addition of sharklets to the A321 and the CFM56-7BE engine and aerodynamic improvements to the 737-900ER will provide each a 3.5% and 2.5% improvement in fuel burn, respectively. These are near term improvements with sharklets available in 2013 and the -7BE engine available in mid-2011. Airbus claims 3,200nm range with max passengers and Boeing claims 3,265nm, each with two aux tanks as options, getting each within about 80% of the 757’s range.

These options will be available for its fleet renewal and the range of
both may just barely meet the requirements for Icelandair’s longest
route (3148nm) from Keflavik to Seattle, which the carrier started
last year after SAS pulled its Copenhagen flight.  

Though with 2015 to 2020 in mind, the conversation shifts significantly to what Boeing and Airbus are planning for the next round of their dueling narrowbodies. 

A recently released a study by Air Insight examining the operating cost improvement of an A321 with Pratt & Whitney PW1000G engine hanging under its wing. Air Insight says the improvement in operating cost justifies the A321 be the first, not the second, member of the A320 family to receive new engines.

Airbus is keenly aware of the dilemma Icelandair and carriers like United, Delta, Continental, American and US Airways face as their fleets of 757s – at an average of 17 years old – ready for retirement. Over the past year, Airbus has sharpened its focus to capture this replacement market.

The report claims a 15% improvement in SFC over the existing CFM56-5B and IAE V2500A engines that power the A320 family today and would add a significant range improvement, or equivalent fuel savings, over today’s routes. P&W’s Bob Saia, vice president next generation product family, estimates the overall improvement in fuel burn would be in the range of 13-14% once the aircraft is adapted for the new powerplant.

John Leahy, Airbus chief operating officer customers, says the NEO (new engine option) would mean four possible choices for customers, with today’s two existing V2500A and CFM56 choices along with a P&W (possibly IAE) geared engine and a CFM Leap-X option. 

Boeing is not sitting still either and has said replacing the 757 is part of Mike Bair’s 737 Advanced Development study going on now, however, any new narrowbody would almost certainly not be available on the near-term end of Gudnason 2015 timeframe. Company CFO James Bell indicated recently that the re-engining of its 737 would yield only a single digit improvement for customers, potentially indicating further short term improvements to the type coupled with a longer-term clean sheet design moving forward.

For Icelandair, with no perfect match to its 757s, going from a single type to two different types to capture its routes today, as well as growth for tomorrow, would change the airline’s operations significantly. With two aircraft types, overall maintenance and pilot training requirements would undercut Icelandair’s low cost base and significant flexibility.

Whatever the carrier decides to do with its fleet, Icelandair’s 2012 decision may be a bellwether as the industry looks to replace an aircraft that today remains irreplaceable.

Photo Credit Thomas Becker

Photo of Note: Crosswind short final to runway 20, originally uploaded by flightblogger.

KEFLAVIK — I finally have had a chance to go through some of my early shots of today’s 787 crosswind testing here in Iceland. Here’s an early preview of what I promise will be many, many more to come.

Sent from my iPad

Keflavik: 27 Gusting to 39, originally uploaded by flightblogger.

KEFLAVIK — The title of the post really covers it. ZA002 is in the right place at the right time with the winds here at Keflavik Airport in Iceland sustained at 27kts and gusting to 39kts out of the east-southeast. Boeing’s second 787 test aircraft has been flying since about 7am here and the morning block of crosswind testing is continuing right now with about seven or eight takeoffs and landings so far to runway 20. ZA002 chief pilot Randy Neville has been at the controls for many of this mornings maneuvers in blustery Keflavik. More from Iceland later.

Travel Night: DCA-BOS-KEF – Chasing ZA002, originally uploaded by flightblogger.

I write this entry from a Boeing 757-300, the 1004th of the Renton line, registered to Icelandair as TF-FIX. I flew to Boston this afternoon to catch ICE630. My destination tonight is Keflavik where ZA002 has been since Tuesday. Boeing is holding a media event for 787 crosswind testing on Friday. It’s going to be a whirlwind 24 hours, but I’ll have a chance to get face to face with a crabbing Dreamliner. Next stop: Reykjavik.

When Boeing first unveiled its 787 final assembly line, the blue and yellow Mother of All Tooling Towers stood as a hulking symbol of a radical lean production philosophy required for the composite jetliner.

Now, as Boeing seeks to balance its own role amidst an historic global production rate increase, the MOATT is likely to become both a symbol of the company’s production missteps and of a more recent push to conventionalize as Boeing struggles to complete a long-awaited recovery.

Productions sources say the MOATT will be retired and replaced by old-fashioned cranes as the company continues to balance the 787’s revolutionary potential with practicalities of production.

Today, Boeing’s 787 final assembly line is stocked with the 24th, 25th, 26th and 27th production aircraft for early customers ANA, Air India, Air India and JAL, respectively. The line shows both its maturity and immaturity, with Airplane 26’s fuselage sections fully painted in white primer, yet the aircraft also lacks its horizontal stabilizer, the victim of workmanship issues by Alenia Aeronautica.

In another effort to avoid a further entry into service slide of the 787, Boeing is reportedly adding four flight test aircraft to the fleet. According to a report by Buckingham Research, Boeing will add Airplanes Seven through Ten to the flight test campaign. All told, The Rolls-Royce test fleet will grow to eight. Airplanes Seven through Nine are all destined for ANA, while Airplane Ten will be delivered to LAN. The report suggests that the additional four aircraft will take part in ETOPS and functionality and reliability (F&R) testing, suggesting that the aircraft will not require the extensive instrumentation unlike the first six 787s.

ZA102, Airplane Nine, was set to join the flight test campaign this fall, but was derailed following the uncontained engine failure of the aircraft’s Trent 1000s during a ground test in Derby, UK. Aviation Week’s Guy Norris reports that the August 2 failure was traced to a build up of oil inside engine.

UPDATE: LAN has selected Rolls-Royce Trent 1000s, not General Electric GEnx-1Bs, as previously posted. I confused LAN’s aircraft with Airplanes 17 and 19 for Royal Air Maroc, which were initially allocated as Trent 1000-powered 787s, but were fitted with GEnx pylons during the assembly process.

UPDATE 4:40 PM ET: Boeing statement on the Buckingham Research report:

There will be limited testing on two additional airplanes for a total of eight airplanes (not four for a total of 10). The additional testing is driven by the requirement that some of the testing be done on airplanes in production configuration as opposed to flight test configuration. One airplane will do some ground testing. The other will do some flight testing.

Just to close the loop on the not so subtle intersection of Russian aircraft and politics, Aeroflot announced today it intended to begin taking deliveries of the 150-seat Irkut MS-21 starting in 2016, which appears to make the carrier the launch customer for the type.

In a letter to Putin, chief executive Valery Savelyev specifies the airline’s acquisition plans up to 2020. Aeroflot says it aims to acquire 40 Sukhoi Superjet 100s, 11 Antonov An-148s and 25 An-140s before 2016. The aircraft will be used to modernise the fleets of Aeroflot and six associate carriers, of which it is taking over management control.

In addition, Savelyev says Aeroflot is prepared to take up to 50 MS-21s between 2016 and 2020. This all-new airliner is designed to be a viable Russian alternative to the existing single-aisles from Airbus and Boeing in the 130- to 190-seat category, and is due to enter service in around five years.

While I don’t speak a word of Russian, Irkut’s MC-21 highly-stylized marketing video provides an interesting look at the plans for the Pratt & Whitney PW1000G-powered aircraft with its three-variant family. The initial 150-seat MS-21-200 will seat 150, the -300 with capacity for 180 passengers, and the -400 with seating up to 210. The 300 appears to be a simple stretch of the fuselage, while the -400 will incorporate a further fuselage stretch and an expanded wing span, leading and trailing edge.

The order that put the 8 in 787 has taken another turn.

While the 787’s flight over to Farnborough featured evaluations of ZA003‘s communications systems, the aircraft’s three days visit to the UK air show was far from a rigorous test environment. The only evaluations that took place on the ground were by the 787’s customers.

As early as Tuesday, ZA002, painted in the colors of the program’s launch customer ANA, will depart Boeing Field for Keflavik, Iceland for the program’s first international test visit.

Because of the airports notoriously high winds and long perpendicular runways, the Icelandic airport is ideal for testing the crosswind handling capabilities of commercial aircraft, and last hosted the 777-200 and -300 during its testing. Keflavik has hosted Airbus as well, when the A380 conducted its own crosswind trials there in 2007.