Author: Jon Ostrower

Spirit Aerosystems is ready to begin ramp up on 787, as soon as Boeing gives the signal.

Richard “Buck” Buchanan, senior vice president for Spirit’s fuselage business segment says the company is currently capable of delivering shipsets at a rate of seven per month, if Boeing orders such a rate increase.

Buchanan says the Boeing is holding a lower rate of deliveries early on to limit the amount of change incorporation it would have to do on already assembled production aircraft.

Spirit will operate at a two shipset per month delivery rate for the second half of 2009 and hold that rate into 2010 until Boeing signals its readiness to ramp up.

Boeing plans to deliver 10 787s per month by 2012.

Buchanan, whose comments came at Spirit’s Investor Day, adds that the company will deliver 10 to 12 787 shipsets in 2009 to Boeing’s final assembly operations in Everett, Washington.

Buchanan adds that “Line Unit 17”, or the 10th production airplane, will be the final 2009 delivery in December of this year.

The company has shipped three forward fuselages so far this year, including one for the first production 787 set for delivery to Japan’s All Nippon Airways in the first quarter of 2010.

Spirit is responsible for fabrication of the forward fuselage (section 41), the leading edges of the wings and engine pylons for the 787-8.

I’ve been getting questions from many corners asking how it’s possible that Air France 447, or any commercial aircraft for that matter, could cross an ocean without air traffic controllers knowing the exact location of the flight at all times?

Right now the only ubiquitous way to have a real time track of an aircraft is with a traditional radar system over or nearby land. Oceans present a unique challenge to aircraft crossing without radar coverage, even though it is done without incident hundreds, if not thousands, of times per day.

Since the early 1990s, pilots have used a system called FANS (Future Air Navigation System) that uses CPDLC (Controller Pilot Data Link Communications) and the older ACARS (Aircraft Communication Addressing and Reporting System) in lieu of voice communication with ATC. The CPDLC runs on ground based and satellite communications via Inmarsat.

Pilots interface with CPDLC via Flight Management Systems (747-400), Datalink Control & Display Unit (DCDU) panels (A330/A340) or Multi-Function Displays (A380, 777 & 787) to send/receive position reports, emergencies, route/speed/altitude changes, enroute weather reports and oceanic crossing clearances.

While cutting down the workload for both pilots and air traffic
controllers, CPDLC was never intended to provide live flight tracking over the ocean. Instead, aircraft report their position at demarcated waypoints along the oceanic crossing and tell controllers when they expect to cross the next waypoint.

I ask: If it can be done on our cell phones, why not for our aircraft?

Air France 447 made a radio call crossing intersection INTOL, before the ACARS fault message was received from the aircraft about 54 nm from intersection TASIL, though the exact location of the crash is unknown as crews have begun to locate debris.

This leads directly into the biggest leap in air traffic control technology since the system was first created in the 1940s. The Next Generation Air Transport System, or Next Gen as it’s known, will see the implementation of satellite based aircraft tracking with the GPS, called Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast (ADS-B). ADS-B technology transmits the location of the aircraft to within a few hundred feet of accuracy to both ground stations and other aircraft, rather than the 1-2 miles of accuracy with traditional radar.

The FAA plans to roll out Next Gen and ADS-B over almost a decade or longer, with airlines and industry groups pushing regulatory agencies to both move up deadlines for aircraft equipage and provide additional financial incentives to outfit aircraft. The ground-based portion of the system is expected to be deployed by 2013, but aircraft outfitting timelines remain an open question.

Right now, the FAA is providing financial assistance to United and US Airways to equip 747-400s and A330s with ADS-B equipment for trial testing, respectively. US Airways will have ADS-B on 20 of 25 of its new A330-200s for Atlantic crossings into Philadelphia. United will install the system on 12 747-400s for testing on Pacific flights between San Fransisco and Australia.

Australia announced in March that it plans to require all aircraft traveling through its airspace above FL290 by December 12, 2013 to comply with ADS-B requirements. The new air traffic system will cover the continent, as well as significant parts of its oceanic airspace. Though the Australians scaled back the plan as it took into account the pace of ATC developments in both Europe and the United States.

As the entire world looks for clues to the cause of Flight 447, technologies that make long haul air travel into areas without radar coverage safer may find themselves at the forefront of the lessons learned. Even if it is found that the cause of the crash is unrelated, a global situational awareness of aircraft position can help speed search and rescue missions, as well as aid in future accident investigations.

Advanced air navigation technologies have come out of air disasters before. In 1974, the FAA mandated Part 121 operators to install ground proximity warning systems in the wake of several controlled flight into terrain accidents in the early 1970s and later expanded that requirement to even smaller aircraft over the last thirty years.

Could this tragedy be the spur for global ADS-B coverage?

In its first quarter earnings, Vought Aircraft Industries announced it was planning for an industry downturn that puts the aerostructures manufacturer in the cross-hairs of significant production cuts in 2010.

“Our forecast now reflect impact from the global economic slowdown,” said CEO Elmer Doty.

Doty cited production cuts on the 777, G450 & G550, A330/A340 and slowing ramp ups on the 767 and 747-8, an uncertain C-17 budget, as well as Cessna’s decision to suspend the Citation Columbus program as the cause of the 2010 re-assessment.

Doty adds:

“While decreases in production are inherent to the cyclical nature of our business each announcement has had an impact to our plan, mostly impacting 2010 and we continue to adjust our resource allocation accordingly. While we remain optimistic on the industry’s long term fundamentals we are nonetheless prepared with additional contingency plans should things deteriorate further as some analysts suggest may happen.”

This hits Vought at a time when the company was already coming out of financial trouble during the higher part of the industrial cycle. The downturn is likely to hit Vought hard, by its own admission. So what does the future hold for this company?

With Boeing’s ambitious 787 ramp-up getting underway, 2010 will especially challenging for the airframer, and maintaining a stable supply chain is paramount.

If Vought gets in serious financial trouble, would/could Boeing step in and buy the company’s Charleston operations to ensure an uninterrupted flow in production? The aft fuselage for the 787, is fabricated and integrated at Vought’s North Charleston, SC facility.

The 787 program’s general manager and VP, recently answered (in a general sense) “Yes.”

Here’s Scott Fancher’s quote (in its entirety) on Boeing’s approach to its supply chain and the circumstances under which it would switch/assist a 787 supplier:

You know, you get into a situation where either some of the first tiers, or their sub-tiers simply aren’t able to perform, now there could be a lot of reasons for that, could be that their in financial stress, could be that technically they’ve run into a situation they can’t handle or could be the complexity of the production of the product that they’ve designed is beyond their capability, so we tend to look at the root cause of the non-performance and how can we help them succeed.

Generally speaking, switching to another supplier will take more time and cost more money than helping a current supplier perform, so that tends to be the lion share of our focus. Now, to bring the broad based best of Boeing to bear on this looking at resources of BCA, IDS or one of our technology organizations to help these suppliers along the way. Sometimes the help is financial in nature, we’d like to avoid doing that but it’s unfortunate and that is an alternative at some point.

And only in an extreme case of true non-performance do we really look at switching suppliers. Now, it does happen and clearly as we go forward we’ll look at some re-balancing of work scope as we sort through where work is most efficiently and cost effectively done, but by and large the focus is on helping our supply chain succeed, not moving the work in a rapid fashion [with travelled work]. Emphasis Added.

Boeing has already shown its willingness to assume control of parts of its 787 supply chain as it did with the 50% purchase of Vought’s share of Global Aeronautica in 2008. Already, staff at the Charleston facility have noted an significant influx of new Boeing staff and contractors.

Many in the analyst community have expressed significant misgivings about the financial future for Vought, declining to discuss the situation on the record, but add that Boeing is mum on any discussions about the future of one of its key 787 suppliers. For Vought’s parent company, The Carlyle Group, it has been a tumultuous year as the group was hit hard by the financial crisis, suffering significant liquidity issues. A big boost in cash for Carlyle might act as a stabilizing force.

If we let this hypothetical play out a bit, then its reasonable to think that Boeing has no need/desire to own the whole of Vought. “Re-balancing” the 787 work scope is one thing, taking on extensive aerostructures manufacturing infrastructure is another. Vought serves many non-Boeing products that company wouldn’t need to be involved in such as A330/A340 and G350/G450/G500/G550 programs.

I’m inclined to say that if all of Vought is divested by Carlyle, another major aerostructures supplier would want the remaining non-787 parts of the company. But who?

Slide 29 of the Spirit Aerosystems 2008 investor day offers an interesting hint. The slide, titled “More New Business Opportunities” outlines future areas the company would like to be involved. On the lower left corner the company identifies “Regional and Business Jets” as an area of interest. The two pictures displayed are of the Cessna Citation X “fuselage and wing” and Gulfstream G450 “propulsion”. Curiously, Vought is responsible for the manufacture of both the wings of the Citation X and the G450 engine nacelle.

Spirit has never been shy about its desire to grow its aerostructures footprint, and Vought’s Nashville and Dallas – its two biggest facilities – might further bolster its commercial portfolio with expansion of its workshare on 747-8, A330/A340, as well as Cessna and Gulfstream products.

So where does this leave Vought? The future for the company appears uncertain, even by its own admission. All signs point to Boeing and Spirit trying to answer exactly this question too. Stay tuned.

This video was shot on board the flight deck of a Qatar Airways Airbus A330-200 (A7-ACB)
and provides a VERY detailed look at the controls and displays of the long-haul twinjet. I recommend watching with the HD setting on to see all the detail. Like Air France, Qatar’s A330s are also powered by General Electric CF6-80 engines. I didn’t have a movie for today, so this hopefully will serve as a substitute, albeit considerably shorter than usual.

Word this morning of the tragic disappearance and presumed crash of Air France Flight 447 somewhere off the Northeastern coast of Brazil has the entire planet asking a lot of questions with few available answers. With so little information available, including the whereabouts of the aircraft, those desperately seeking information – the airline, the manufacturer, the traveling public, the news media and most importantly the friends and families of those on board – are left only to speculate what may have happened to the 228 souls on-board.

The Airbus A330-203 (F-GZCP), which went missing about 3.5 hrs after its departure from Rio De Janeiro enroute to Paris, was manufactured in 2005 with its first flight on February 25th followed by delivery on April 4th of that same year. The aircraft was the 660th A330 built by Airbus and was deployed on flights from Paris to cities like Bangalore, Philadelphia, Cairo, New York and Dubai.

In June 2005, F-GZCP (40J/179Y), powered by two General Electric CF6-80E1A3 engines, was responsible for inaugurating Air France’s transatlantic service between Paris and Detroit.

Flight reports:

At 22:33 Brasilia local time, says the ministry, the aircraft made
final radio contact with the eastern Brazilian Cindacta-3 Atlantic area
control centre at Recife, one of four en route centres that oversee
Brazilian airspace.

The aircraft contacted Cindacta-3 at the INTOL waypoint, some 350nm
(565km) from Natal, a city on the Brazilian coast. It indicated that it
would enter Dakar airspace, Senegal, at the TASIL waypoint – about
663nm (1,228km) from Natal just under 50min later, at 23:20 Brasilia
time.

AF447 left Cindacta-3 radar surveillance from the island of Fernando de
Noronha, at 22:48. At this time it was cruising at 35,000ft at 453kt,
says the defence ministry, with indications that the flight was
“normal”.

The aircraft did not contact air traffic control around the time of the expected transit of TASIL.

The ministry says that Air France
has informed Cindacta-3 that, about 54nm (100km) from TASIL the flight
transmitted a technical message concerning loss of pressurisation and
an electrical failure.

The early indications point to some type of weather event that caused the aircraft to send a ACARS message signaling an electrical circuit failure around the time it hit turbulence during its Atlantic crossing. Air France says that, as of now, no wreckage has been located.

With far more questions than answers, everything falls into the category of speculation, though the accident – without definitive clues has the potential to reopen long standing debates about fly-by-wire controls, airliner lightning strike protection, ADIRUs and ETOPS even after millions of hours of safe in-service operation of these technologies.

Flight’s Operations/Safety Editor David Learmount captured the event this way:

An event like this is the kind the aviation world hoped it would not
see again, because it involves a world class carrier flying the latest
generation of airliner, and it occurred en route, not during take-off
or landing in difficult weather. It’s a chilling reminder that nothing
is impossible, however unthinkable.

Boeing’s first 787, ZA001, is two days into its planned seven-day intermediate gauntlet test that will test integrated functions of the aircraft systems while fooling the aircraft into believing it is flying, the company confirms.

The testing got underway Friday evening and rolled into Saturday morning, according to Aviation Week.

Guy Norris outlined five blocks of testing as part of the first several days of the intermediate gauntlet:

• Block One – Dry-run of the B-1 flight. Overnight May 29-30.
• Block Two – Re-run of the B-1 flight plus testing of the Common Core System, with a focus on developing the “time stamp” function for systems testing. Afternoon May 30.
• Block Three – Propulsion and electrical systems testing. Overnight May 30-31
• Block Four – Further testing of electrical, hydraulic, avionics and environmental control systems. Morning May 31.
• Block Five – Further Common Core System and flight control system tests. Late May 31.

Boeing say that it still plans for the intermediate gauntlet to last seven days, putting its conclusion around June 4th or 5th.

Prior to Friday’s start of the intermediate gauntlet, ZA001 conducted high power engine runs and tests of the flight control surfaces. According to Liz Matzelle, who capture video of the testing, says ZA001 conducted four engine runs during the course of Friday, lasting between three and ten minutes.

Dreamliner Engine Run Video Courtesy of Liz Matzelle

I woke up this morning to find some pretty spectacular photographs in my inbox. You’ll recognize the plane in the photos, though the angle at which they were taken is a little different that we’re used to. The following photos of ZA001 were taken from the traffic pattern over Paine Field yesterday afternoon. They really capture the proportions of the aircraft. So, we’ve got air-to-ground photos, now all we need are ground-to-air photos. A very special thanks to Igs who generously gave me permission to post these here.

Photo Credit Igs

UPDATE 7:56 PM ET: Boeing is spending today on “shop gauntlet work” on ZA001 in preparation for the intermediate gauntlet, now scheduled for tomorrow. In addition, today’s early morning engine runs have also moved to tomorrow ahead of the second phase of the gauntlet. As originally planned, the intermediate gauntlet will begin with the B-1 profile flight.

ZA001’s seven-day intermediate gauntlet could get underway as early as the middle of the day today in Everett, sources indicate.

The first 787 was scheduled to undergo multiple engine runs starting in the wee hours of this morning.

Following those engine runs, the flight test team would hold a pre-gauntlet meeting this morning to evaluate the aircraft’s readiness for the intermediate gauntlet. If the stamp of approval is given and no further testing is required, the second – and longest – phase of gauntlet testing will get underway in the late morning or middle of the day in Everett.

The early intermediate gauntlet tests will feature a B-1 profile, or simulated first flight of a new aircraft. Earlier this month, Boeing’s Integrated Test Vehicle (ITV) also known as ZA000, ran through this simulated flight tests evaluating the systems under multiple failure modes, essentially a run through of the type of testing ZA001 will be subjected to during the intermediate gauntlet.

The ITV tests were run in two blocks, a standard B-1 profile was run on May 6th and a much more challenging failure-laden B-1 simulation on May 9-10th that included failures of the common core system, hydraulics and environmental control and the brake-by-wire systems.

Back in the factory, ZA002 – still parked in Building 40-24 – underwent gear swing tests yesterday evening. In addition, engines are now installed on ZA004 and ZA005, marking two important milestones. First, the final Trent 1000 fitting of flight test aircraft and the first installation of the General Electric GExn-1B engine on a 787 airframe.

Photo Credit Liz Matzelle

ALSO SEE: Here to there: 787 pre-first flight milestones explained

With Boeing’s revised intermediate gauntlet testing approaching rapidly, potentially as early as today or tomorrow, down from last week’s two week estimate, the airframer has offered some clarity about the source of its confidence for its compressed pre-flight testing.

The change is the result of two methodological reevaluations in the approach the company had taken on its road to flying the 787 for the first time.

Boeing says the testing changes stem from:

1. Evaluating what testing can be done concurrently and;
2. Establishing what is a true requirement prior to first flight.

The result, says 787 program vice president and general manager Scott Fancher, is a significantly reduced final gauntlet, originally set for eight days, and an expanded intermediate gauntlet, now running seven days.

“We’ve actually pulled that to the left,” says Fancher of the intermediate gauntlet on May 21st. “Because quite frankly the systems are mature and ready to take it earlier from where we originally planned.”

Fancher describes the intermediate gauntlet as much more expansive than the factory gauntlet run last month:

“Here we will operate the aircraft on engines seven days, 24/7 with aircrew on the flight deck simulating ground and flight environments, not just nominal flight profiles but a wide range of off-nominals as well, demonstrating the full robustness and gaining confidence in the robustness of the aircraft.”

Boeing declined to specify what testing was being done concurrently, or whether or not it would be conducted amongst groups of systems, or tasks within systems, but the company has found a significant time savings on the road to first flight.

For the “true” requirements prior to first flight, Boeing also declined to elaborate if these were tasks that had no bearing on the aircraft achieving its experimental airworthiness certificate, which is the regulatory stamp of approval before being allowed to fly, making the reshuffling more feasible.

Overall, Boeing’s move of ground tests to the flight testing phase appears to point towards opting to add as much extra margin to the front-end of the 8.5 month flight test campaign by completing first flight as early as possible in June.

Boeing adds:

The testing that has been done, is being done and will be done on the 787 in laboratories and onboard the airplane before it takes flight is more exhaustive than any program in our history.

Each of these tests gives us more and more confidence in the airplane. Our commitment to the safety of every flight – from the first to the last – is unwavering and we will not embark on first flight without having assured ourselves and the regulatory agency that we are ready.”

• In other 787 news, Spirit Aerosystems loaded up the Dreamlifter yesterday and delivered the first production forward fuselage for ZA100, the first aircraft set for delivery next year to ANA. The Global Aeronautica integrated center fuselage is the last major structural section left to deliver.

Photo Credits Liz Matzelle

French newspaper La Tribune reports this morning that Airbus has thwarted multiple attempts at industrial espionage at its Tianjin A320 facility.

ROUGH TRANSLATION:

Airbus reportedly foiled in recent months several attempts at
industrial espionage at its plant in Tianjin, which opened its doors in
August 2008, according to our information. The President of Airbus, Tom Enders, has even mentioned several times internally in
Toulouse. According to some sources, it would be theft of patents.
Criminals have gained access to the computer system for Airbus in
Tianjin, gateway access to records of certain patents.

These attempts at intrusion into the secure computer system provides fuel to opponents of the creation last year of an assembly
site for Airbus in China, the first outside Europe. Is the person on Airbus contract
or an outsider? It’s a mystery. Tom Enders was reassured in this manner. For him,
the discovery of these attempts proved the successful surveillance systems
established for the plant. However, nothing says that the thieves were making their first attempt or whether others have passed through the net.
“Everything is secure. We have no problems of this type,” assures those in Tianjin.

Today’s report comes just a week after Airbus flew the first Chinese built A320 from Tianjin on May 20th with first delivery set for next month.

Flight reported last month that Airbus was exploring moving some of its A350 XWB workshare to the facility, but declined to specify what work could be done there. Airbus announced in 2007 it aims to give China 5% of the A350 work.

The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) is currently developing its narrowbody model 919 aircraft in time for a 2014 first flight and 2016 entry into service, seating between 130 and 200 passengers.