Category: FlightBlogger

Thousand point spikes and drops are enough to make my stomach churn. Since September 12, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has only had three days where the close at the end of the day was less than 100 points difference from the opening, and even on those days the market swung wildly during trading. All this volatility could be bad for business and bad for backlogs.

With the global economy [insert perilous sounding metaphor], consumers are taking a more conservative approach with their finances. Americans are already cutting back on traveling, shopping and eating out to save where they can. With less movement of goods and people, energy costs will begin to drop with the reduced demand. In just the last two weeks, the price at the pump fell 36 cents, the steepest drop ever.

Which brings me to a comment made two weeks ago by Boeing CEO Jim McNerney:

Our airline customers already are struggling to operate profitably under volatile and high fuel prices. A reduction in business and leisure travel would further damage their fragile health and potentially impact the sales of our airplanes and services. However, the flip side of the high fuel price coin is that demand in the market for our fuel-efficient new airplanes remains high, and we have seen few order deferrals or cancellations. [Emphasis mine]

Mr. McNerney is absolutely right, but what happens if the other side of the coin is wiped clean? What if the high fuel price is no longer a factor?

Did the pain of $140 forever impress upon airlines the need for new fuel efficient aircraft? Or has the pain subsided as capacity cuts have given way to a healthy influx of cash?

The Seattle Post-Intelligencer identified a ‘triple threat’ to Boeing that included the on-going strike, 787 delays and an inability for its customers to secure financing. The first three are accurate representations for Boeing, but a fourth threat is one that could strike at Airbus, Bombardier and Embraer as well.

How low and for how long does oil have to remain cheap for backlogs to feel the pain? If airlines are able to operate profitably without new fuel-efficient aircraft, does it still make sense to buy new equipment?

What’s up with Dreamliner One?
Aviation Week, Flight’s able competitor, reported last week on the start of pre-pre-flight tests for ZA001:

Despite the strike, Boeing’s flight-test engineers are planning to start pre-flight tests on ZA001’s air data system around Oct. 8. The tests will focus on the probes for the Honeywell system, which is configured with six remotely located air data modules. Data from the sensors will be relayed to the air data computational software hosted on the GE Aviation common core computing system.

Tests on the air data system follow the completion of the high-blow milestone. “As we expected, the structure stood up to the pressure with no issues–a real testament to the composite technology on board the airplane,” says a company statement. “We have to complete two more static tests before first flight–one on the leading edges and one on the trailing edges.”

Signs of Movement
The Seattle PI reports that Boeing and the IAM have been in secret talks since late last week. I’m not about to jump to conclusions, but this is a darn good sign. The fact that they’re talking is progress, so hopefully they are on the road that leads to the road that gets to the off ramp of a resolution to this strike.

Everett photographer Matt Cawby caught a rare mid-day move of the fourth (of eight) TAM 777-300ER to the paint shop yesterday. The day the strike began, that aircraft was closest to the door with the first Qatar 777-200LR following right behind. This is the first high-rate aircraft to leave the Everett factory for the paint shop since the strike began five weeks ago.

A340 GTF First Flight?
Airbus’s F-WWCA, the first A340-600, was spotting doing taxi tests with
the Pratt & Whitney PW1000G tucked neatly under its wing last week
in Toulouse. Those tests are a precursor to the commencement of the 2nd
phase of flight testing for the geared turbofan demonstrator engine. The engine was seen Saturday wrapped up like a Christmas stocking
with a bright red cover. This shot by photographer David Barrie (and friend of this
blog) really captures the size comparison between the
PW1000G and the other three Trent 500 engines.

Iraqi Airways Fleet Revival
The once robust Iraqi Airways fleet that was decimated by years of sanctions and conflict has finally seen its first new aircraft in a VERY long time. A beautiful Bombardier CRJ-900 (test reg. C-FULE, sn 15189) in the new blue livery was spotted last week in Canada. The aircraft will become YI-AQA.

Movie Monday
In honor of Columbus Day (either a day off for you or a slow day at your office) I present two hours of fighter jet competition. Nova’s Battle of the X-Planes is an extraordinary peek into the world of the competition for the Joint Strike Fighter contract that was awarded to Lockheed Martin. Enjoy!

For more coverage of the Joint Strike Fighter program, check out Steve Trimble’s The DEW Line.

I’m taking a vacation!
I haven’t really had a vacation for about 13 months, so I decided it’s time to skip town. I’ll be off Thursday, Friday and Monday. Not to worry, I’ll have fresh content up and scheduled for posting while I’m gone. I will be 110% unreachable. Laptop is staying at home and the iPhone is going off.

UBS analyst David Strauss released a report earlier today stating that the first 787 deliveries will not take place until 2010. Strauss cites the original schedule for flight test aircraft laid out in April, which says first flight was supposed to take place October 29, following a targeted assembly completion of August 31.

The assembly completion of Dreamliner One slipped to October 6 prior to the strike. FlightBlogger is not able to confirm one way or another currently if assembly completion was reached per the revised schedule, though this blogger has learned the left engine was recently reinstalled and the aircraft has been powered on consistently in recent days.

The schedule, published by UBS and confirmed by FlightBlogger, also states that assembly was set to be completed on September 10 and September 25 for Dreamliners Two and Three, respectively. Strauss identifies the strike, along with a five week slip in assembly completion on Dreamliner One, as the primary catalyst for his bearish analysis.

Watching flights into Paine Field in Everett: We are tracking
movements of Boeing’s modified 747 “Dreamlifter” fleet to gauge the
progress of 787 production. Specifically, we are monitoring Dreamlifter
flights into Snohomish County Paine Field Airport (KPAE) in Everett WA,
adjacent to 787 production, to gauge the pace of shipments from the
major structural suppliers. Major structural components are delivered
via the Dreamlifter fleet to Boeing in Everett and include the wings
from Japan, aft fuselage from Charleston SC, center fuselage from Italy
(via Charleston), and forward fuselage from Wichita KS.

Strike halts already slow-paced structural deliveries: We did not
track any Dreamlifter flights into Everett in September as Boeing has
apparently halted all 787 deliveries from its suppliers given the
ongoing Machinists strike. We continued to track some center fuselage
deliveries to Charleston.

Flight test program now unlikely to complete prior to early 2010:
Even prior to the Machinists strike that began in September, the slow
pace of structural deliveries had led us to believe that Boeing was
highly unlikely to hit its revised 787 flight test schedule. Boeing has
now missed the scheduled assembly complete dates for the first three
flight test aircraft and we believe the flight test program is unlikely
to complete prior to early 2010.

With this new assessment, launch customer All Nippon Airways of Japan will not receive its first 787 next year. James Wallace of the Seattle Post Intelligencer reports in his blog today that the airline was set to receive ZA007 (JA801A) on August 15, 2009.

With the global markets in free fall, along with this grim new assessment, Boeing’s stock today was trading at the same level it was on the day the 7E7 was launched in April of 2004.

Without any deliveries in 2010, Boeing’s production ramp up would be snarled, inevitably forcing a revamp of its previous production forecasting. Geoffrey Thomas of The Australian reported last week that:

Following the most recently announced delay in April, it was expected
that the company would deliver 25 next year, 69 in 2010, 103 in 2011
and 120 in 2012.

Boeing still maintains it is targeting 2008 for first flight of the 787. If this goal is accomplished, however unlikely, the challenge of getting the remaining flight test aircraft airborne remains extremely difficult without the machinists who were responsible for the remaining structural work that was still yet to be completed on ZA002, ZA003 and ZA004.

The subject of the final look and feel of the A350 XWB has been the subject of extensive discussion, mostly of the unserious kind. Yet, after Flight revealed a different nose and window design for Airbus’s new long-range widebody two weeks ago, the windows appear to be right back to the original design in another ad running running on flightglobal.com.

What’s a nitpicking aircraft junky to make of all this?

Today:
Two weeks ago:

With that being said, check out this video of how Airbus can deck out the XWB Prestige:

This story has moved on while I have been travelling back from NBAA and has been slightly amended as a result…

Two seemingly unrelated, yet interconnected, stories are breaking within minutes of one another this evening.

Flight is reporting that first flight of the oft-delayed Boeing 787 Dreamliner is still expected to happen in the last quarter of this year, and the Seattle Times is reporting that the airframer has also resumed negotiations with its largest Union, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, which has been on strike for more than a month.

2008 first flight for 787 Dreamliner still the target says Boeing
By Mary Kirby

Boeing is maintaining that the 787’s maiden flight will occur during the fourth quarter of this year.

A Boeing spokesman stated the airframer will have “more specific airplane performance data following flight testing. That’s scheduled to happen first quarter 2009.”

However the spokesman went on to clarify that Boeing are still aiming for a 2008 first flight: “When I was referring to flight testing in the first quarter, I was referring to performance flight testing. We are still planning first flight for the fourth quarter.”

Boeing, Machinists will resume talks in monthlong strike
By Dominic Gates

Following a top-level meeting this afternoon, Boeing and the Machinists union have agreed to go back to the table and to resume contract negotiations — though the strike will continue.

International Association of Machinists (IAM) leaders Mark Blondin and Tom Wroblewski met in Everett with Boeing commercial airplanes chief executive Scott Carson, labor vice president Doug Kight and chief company negotiator Tom Easley.

The agreement comes on day 33 of the strike by 27,000 machinists, which has halted aircraft and parts production in the Puget Sound region, in Portland and in Wichita, Kan.

Uncertainty has ruled over this last month on both the 787 program and IAM strike. Let’s hope that these latest developments produce some clarity for Boeing, its employees and its customers.

Image credit: FlightBlogger

Pimp My Dreamliner, originally uploaded by flightblogger.

Boeing Business Jet’s VIP model of the 787 Dreamliner at NBAA. Those
lit video screens were actually playing The Matrix on them. It was a
very nice touch.

Bombardier unveiled its Learjet 85 cabin mock-up here at NBAA and I was invited to take a look inside the new Rockwell Collins Pro Line Fusion avionics suite.

UPDATE: See our walk through video of the Learjet 85 cabin mock-up.

The business end of the first composite Bombardier aircraft features three 15.1″ (38.4 cm) Active Matrix Liquid Crystal Displays (AMLCD), Electronic Flight Instrument System (EFIS), Dual automatic Attitude Heading Reference System (AHRS), Integrated
Flight Information System (IFIS) with electronic charts, One Class II Electronic Flight Bag (EFB), Synthetic Vision System for Situational Awareness (SVS), Terrain Awareness and Warning System (TAWS), Dual Flight Management System (FMS) and a weather radar system.

Wow, that’s a lot of alphabet soup! Take a look:

Phenom 100 PP-XOG 004, originally uploaded by flightblogger.

Embraer’s Phenom 100 VLJ. I saw 004 in final assembly just before she
first flew in March.

David Velupillai, marketing director for Airbus’s executive and private aviation division, generously provided a tour of the Airbus Corporate Jet (ACJ) for us yesterday. This particular A319, operated by Comlux (9F-AFK), is fully decked out. It’s got a range of about 6,000 miles with room for 19. Take a look for yourself.

Come along as I explore the NBAA convention hall floor with my iPhone. I’m uploading photos live from my iPhone, so reload this page for updates. If there is anything you’d like to see in particular, please send me an email at flightblogger@gmail.com or @flightblogger me on Twitter. I’m going to be walking around until about 5:30-6:00 PM. Enjoy!

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