Following the clues of the 787 cancellation (Update1)

What do we know?

• Right now the 787 program has 861 firm orders from 56 customers.
• At its peak at the end of last year, Boeing held 910 orders from 59 customers.
• At the time of roll out (July 8, 2007), Boeing listed 49 customers on the side of ZA001.
• According to Bloomberg:

The 25-jet deal was dropped April 30 and had been part of a
group of 42 orders from unidentified customers that now number
17 after today’s weekly Web site update, said Jim Proulx, a
Boeing spokesman. He declined to give further details.

• 11 identified customers hold orders for 25 or more 787s. All of the following are accounted for in Boeing overall 861 order tally on its website:

Air Berlin, Air Canada, Air India, ANA, Continental, Etihad, ILFC, JAL, LAN, QANTAS and Qatar.

• On July 28, 2006 – Boeing received an order for 2 787-8s from an Unidentified Customer. That order is now removed from the official count.
• On January 14, 2008 – Boeing received an order for 23 787-8s from an Unidentified Customer. That order is now removed from the official count.

What does this tell us?

• The customer in question was likely listed on the side of ZA001 at the time of roll out. Let’s take a look at those tails:

All the accounted for 25+ customers are highlighted above. In addition, there were two tails that were not immediately recognized and unaccounted for in the official tally as identified customers. One is listed as BPA with a blue tail and the other as LOM with an unidentified logo. Let’s take a closer look at that logo.

And now this:

CNN.com – May 8, 2009 – RBS announces $1.29B first-quarter loss

I’m told BPA is Blue Panorama Aviation with 4 orders, ruling them out of the speculation.

Based on the latest news from RBS, combined with its apparent status as one of the unidentified customers, the cancellation appears to have originated from lessor The Royal Bank of Scotland.