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A380 Cuts Production
Airbus announced yesterday that it will cut super-jumbo production this year from 18 to 14 and lowered forecasts for 2010 to about 20 deliveries. Interestingly, Airbus has all remaining 13 2009 aircraft deliveries in both their Toulouse and Hamburg final assembly and finishing facilities.

Remaining in 2009: Emirates will receive three (MSN007, 023 and 025), QANTAS will receive four (MSN026, 027, 029, 047), Singapore will also receive four (MSN019, 021, 034, 045) and Air France will take delivery of two (MSN033 and 040).

787 Loses 25 More Orders
Boeing today revealed an additional 25 cancellations for the 787 Dreamliner. No official word yet on the customer, though early signs say that the 25 were part of a 42 aircraft ordered from unidentified customers, leaving 17 787s on the books.

The loss of 25 additional orders brings the program’s 2009 gross cancellation totals to 57, with 49 net cancellations with the inclusion of 8 exercised options by Bahrain’s Gulf Air.

747-8 Takes Shape
Vought announced today that by this weekend it will have delivered the center and aft fuselage, along with the empennage and floor grids for the 1420th 747, which also happens to be the first 747-8F destined for Cargolux.
…more on Vought
This key industry supplier finds itself at a crossroads heading into the 2nd half of 2009 and into 2010. The company is currently transitioning from 747-400 to 747-8 production as deliveries slow to switch the lines over. Vought is a key structural node for much of the industry and finds itself distinctly vulnerable next year as Gulfstream reduces rate on its G450 and G550 products, Airbus holds rate on A330/A340, the C-17 line slows into oblivion and finally Cessna’s halting of development on the Columbus.

Vought CEO Elmer Doty once called his company the “riskiest” partner on 787, though the company has gotten its arms around its contribution to the program. However, big questions remain for the Dallas-based supplier about how to survive this downturn that puts the company’s exposure to slowing production rates as painful reality and not an existential threat.

General Electric is hoping the 787 flight test program will help to break an impasse with Airbus regarding a second engine option for the A350 XWB.

The US engine-maker sees an opportunity to “restructure discussions” with Airbus on the inclusion of GEnx derived engine for the XWB, once two of Boeing’s six 787 flight test aircraft take part in the certification campaign and validate the performance of the powerplant.

Airbus, which has selected the Rolls-Royce Trent XWB engine, built out of the 787’s Trent 1000 technology, has always maintained that a second engine was necessary for market reception.

Airbus says that the company is “always interested in exciting new technologies” for its aircraft and has an open line of communication with its engine providers.

GE on the other hand, was reluctant to offer an engine that would compete directly with its GE90 powerplant for the 777. Though the engine maker believes it can still offer a product that can exceed the performance of the Trent 1000, as well as the XWB by extension.

GE says that if reaches a deal to offer the current Boeing 787-optimized GEnx for the A350, it will only power the -800 and -900 variants.

Airbus has always maintained that it wanted a centerline engine for all three variants of its new long range twin though John Leahy,  chief operating officer for Airbus, opened the door in 2007 for a GEnx offering on only two of three XWB variants.

“We would look at it if it was a better engine [than the GEnx], that was for the -800 and -900 now with the -1000’s coming at a later date,” said Leahy.

408 of 483 orders accumulated for the A350 XWB are for the -800 or the -900 variant.

GE’s renewed confidence in offering its engine for the A350 XWB stems from plans to reach spec SFC for the 787’s GEnx-1B by revising the low pressure (LP) turbine of the engine by adding blades, vanes and nozzles to better guide the air through the engine. The revised LP turbine will be available in time for the first GEnx powered 787 to be delivered next year.

The engine maker had initially removed many of the airfoils for weight reduction, but found the lightweight design lacked the performance promised on the engine. It was widely believed that GE, as well as Rolls-Royce, had missed its SFC targets for the 787.

GE says it benefitted from the delay in the 787 program, using the time to improve durability of the engine combustor to offer a more mature engine at entry into service.

GE plans to build similar improvements into the GEnx-2B that will power the 747-8.

The engine maker will amend the certification of the GEnx-1B engine after flight testing the new LP turbine and combustor on the company’s venerable 747-100 test bed.

Further more, GE is not shy about its goals for the GEnx engine and the 787 program, as it aims to exceed Trent 1000 SFC by 2% by 2011 with additional improvements to the GEnx engine.

Rolls-Royce recently acknowledged that its Trent 1000 engines will be within 1% of spec for 787 engines for its Block 4A improvement expected to be introduced early in the 787’s production run next year.

As a result, GE hopes to exceed its original target SFC by 1% within a year after GEnx entry into service under the wing of the 787.

Bernstein Research says ZA100 will be 8% overweight with a 10-15% shortfall in range.

Let’s take a look at what that might mean for aircraft performance:

• Boeing targeted a Spec Operating Empty Weight of 252,500 lbs for a 787-8 and maximum empty weight of 191,000 lbs at firm configuration, according to the Airbus assessment. 8% over puts the weight between 15,280 and 20,200 lbs over target.

• The figure of 20,200 lbs correlates closely to the Airbus Dossier, which cites 21,050 lbs of LN1 maximum empty weight growth since firm configuration. Airbus cited Boeing documents in this estimate. LN1 would be significantly heavier as a result of the significant instrumentation and associated wiring installed for the flight test campaign.
• Using this data (15-20K lbs) against the 1% SFC shortfall in Trent 1000 Build 4A [Package B] engines, the
  PianoX performance analysis puts the 787-8 EIS range between 6,490 and 6,756 NM. (Up to 15% off of 7,650 NM)

• However, Bernstein estimates the performance of the 787 “will translate into a range near 6,900 nm., well below the promised 7,700-8,200 nm. range.” (10% off off 7,700 NM and 15% off of 8,200 NM)
• Overall, using these various calculations, 787 range projections of overweight performance vary from 6,490 NM up to 6,900 NM.
• Great Circle Mapper comparison of 6,490 NM v. 6,900 NM v. 7,650 NM v 8,200 NM  from Tokyo’s Narita Airport for rough range performance of launch customer ANA’s 787s.

ANALYSIS

Boeing has confirmed that it is actively seeking to reduce the weight of the 787.

The airframer has never publicly disclosed the actual amount of weight it needs to remove from the aircraft, though ILFC Chief Steven Udvar-Hazy, who has been closely involved in the aircraft design as one of the 787’s largest customers, says early aircraft will be overweight.

Airplane 20, which will be delivered to JAL, will be the first major production blockpoint incorporating significant empty weight savings and will see the max. takeoff weight grow to 227.9 tonnes.

According to documents dated April 2008 and obtained by rival Airbus, Boeing has already identified at least 1690 lbs of weight reduction for production aircraft, with up to 4000 lbs potentially available for elimination. If Boeing achieves an additional 4000 lb weight reduction, 787 performance would grow to just above 7,000 NM, per the PianoX assessment.

These weight overruns have the potential to be costly not only for ANA but for Boeing as well. For historical perspective, Boeing’s contractual arrangements with United Airlines promised the US carrier up to $500 per pound above contractual weight per year, per aircraft for the 777 program in 1995.

Using the available data from PianoX, analyst and competitor assessments, 787 entry into service performance is tracked between 6,490 and 6,900 NM.

Without aerodynamic data and route proving trials that can only be gained in the upcoming flight test program, many of these range estimates fall within a reasonable, albeit speculative, analysis.

Yet, the contribution of technologies such as trailing edge variable camber, raked blended winglets, drooping ailerons and spoilers, laminar flow optimized engine nacelles and additional engine performance improvements all leave open questions until real-world data can deliver a conclusive verdict on aircraft performance.

Boeing plans to conduct a final weighing of Airplane Seven once final assembly is completed later this year.

BOEING COMMENT

ATW – Boeing responds to skepticism, maintains 787 timeline – May 6, 2009
Regarding performance concerns, the company claimed the 787 will
“meet mission payload commitments to all customers.” However, it
conceded that “early airplanes are heavy and [we] are working hard on
implementing weight improvements.”

Concerning the Bernstein
report, it said, “the conclusion on range is inaccurate and the 787-8’s
range is closer to 8,000 nm. than 7,000 nm.” Bernstein’s report said it
understood from customers and supplier discussions that the first
production 787s are likely to be roughly 8% overweight, with range
10%-15% less than promised, which translated into a range near 6,900
nm., well below the promised 7,700-8,200 nm. range.

Dreamliner One, which coincidentally is parked next to the 787th Boeing 777, spent Monday preparing for fuel quantity verification tests with some additional fuel tank sealant and electrical resistance checks.

As of publication on Tuesday, ZA001 had not yet begun fueling.

Back in the factory, the first General Electric GEnx engines are being prepped for installation aboard ZA005. The engines arrived on the factory floor Friday afternoon.

ZA002 remains in the paint hangar where it is receiving the colors of 787 launch customer All Nippon Airways, FlightBlogger confirms.

Following the
completion of its paint job, the aircraft will return to the factory by mid-month,
two bays down from the 787 line in Building 40-24.

Boeing completed ground vibration testing late last week and the blue test fixture had been pulled back away from the aircraft by Saturday. The removal of instrumentation from the aircraft marked the weekend’s final preparations ahead of Sunday evening’s roll out that followed ZA001’s trip to fuel dock F-3.

Sunday’s departure of Dreamliner One from the paint hangar cleared the way for ZA004, ZA005 and ZA006 to advance one position on the 787’s pulsing assembly line, filling the spot vacated by ZA002.

With the first body-join position now clear, ZA100, the first production 787 will be able to begin final assembly once the mid and forward fuselages are delivered from Global Aeronautica and Spirit Aerosystems, respectively.

On the other side of the factory, the final 747-400 (LN1419) left the factory giving ZY998 and ZA003 the chance to advance closer to the football field-sized doors.

Boeing 787, originally uploaded by Charles Conklin.

Just hours after ZA001 vacated Paint Hangar 45-03 across from Boeing’s Everett factory, ZA002 filled the open spot to receive its first coat of paint.

ZA002 completed ground vibration testing late last week, pushing the program ever closer to its first flight by the end of June. There is currently no indication about what colors the flight test aircraft will wear after customers ANA and RAM opted for early production aircraft instead of a block of the first six test 787s.

Photo Credit Charles Conklin

Dreamliner Rollout Full from Liz Matzelle.

EVERETT/12:43 PM PT — Rollout of ZA001 from the paint hangar to the fuel dock is imminent.

1:23 PM PT: ZA001 departed the paint hangar at 1:06 PM Pt for the fuel dock.

1:37 PM PT: First photos.

1:53 PM PT: Dreamliner One and Dreamlifter pose together outdoors. Two years ago, the LCF was responsible for bringing each major structural section to Everett for final assembly

This is a developing story and will be updated.

Hey all, been getting a lot of emails about arranging a get together this weekend here in Everett, so here’s what I’m thinking. I’m going to be showing up around 1 PM at Everett’s grassy knoll on Saturday to do some spotting. If there’s enough interest, I say we organize a group to go on the Boeing Factory tour around 2 PM. No need to RSVP, just show up and say hello!

UPDATE: Stuck in good ole Seattle traffic. Will be there by 1:15. Meet inside FoF because of the rain.

Hope you can make it if you’ll be in the area tomorrow!