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Progress has been swift for ZA001 over the last several days in Everett, clearing the way for the first of three gauntlet testing phases to begin Monday at 6:30 AM PT, FlightBlogger confirms.

With systems software integration testing (SSIT) complete on Dreamliner One, which was completed faster than initially planned, the factory gauntlet will take place in two ten hour blocks and could wrap up as early as the wee hours of Tuesday morning, opening the door for seeing ZA001 on the flight line by week’s end.

During this past weekend Aviation Week’s Guy Norris reported that final pre-gauntlet system checks were being conducted on the aircraft.

Major system check out
work now going con the aircraft, situated on the 767 line in Everett’s
Building 40-24, includes hydraulics, flight control and fire-detection.
Another team is meanwhile working its way around the exterior of the
airframe, checking to make sure the flight control surfaces are all
correctly trimmed and in-line, all panels and doors are adjusted and
trimmed, and that aerodynamic “smoothness” is as perfect as it can be.

The 787 flight
instrumentation test system, which is the most complex and
comprehensive ever flown on a Boeing commercial product, is also due to
be tested today. Designed to monitor the performance of the aircraft
and its systems during flight tests, the evaluation will also require
participation by a test pilot on the flight deck.

Another source confirms that the external panels of ZA001 have been refitted, confirming the Aviation Week report that flight test wiring is “mostly closed up and connected.”

Mr. Norris also adds that the ballast tanks that were previously installed were removed to gain a, “definitive measurement of the 787’s operating empty weight (OEW).“
 
In addition, the first production standard aft fuselage structures touched down in Everett on Sunday afternoon for ZA100. The twin-mated barrels arrived with the highest level of integration to date with 96% completion.

Photo Credit Liz Matzelle

The Last Boeing 747-400 Aircraft 1419, originally uploaded by moonm.

The one-thousand four-hundred and nineteenth Boeing 747 left Building 40-22 yesterday evening, the same way one-thousand four-hundred and eighteen 747s did before it. The aircraft, a 747-400ERF is the final -400 to come off the assembly line. The side of the airplane declares that it is the second 747 freighter for LoadAir cargo in Kuwait, though its predecessor, the 1st 747-400ERF for LoadAir, is painted completely white and wears an US N-registration as it waits on the Everett flight line for an operator. The future for this aircraft, built under the backdrop of a global collapse in air cargo traffic, is quite uncertain.

As Line 1419 departed the 747 final assembly line, the 787 fatigue test airframe (ZY998) rolled back into the factory for additional structural rework. ZY998 joins ZA003 on the 747 line as the first 747-8F (LN1420) is in the wing laydown process in preparation for final assembly later this year.

The commencement of the factory gauntlet for Dreamliner One has slipped about a week and is now set for later in April, according to those familiar with the schedule. The factory gauntlet date was realigned to coincide with shop
completion, at which point ZA001 will be handed over to the flight test
group for gauntlet testing.

Boeing has never publicly specified a date for any milestones aside from the June 30th deadline for first flight, though the time available to accomplish the required milestones after leaving the factory continues to narrow.

ZA001 remains in Building 40-24 and was recently conducting “wag the dog” tests. This test deflects the control surfaces in high-frequency, low-amplitude movements to measure the effect of the movement on the aircraft structure. In this particular case, the rudder was swinging back and forth quickly with limited displacement and “gets the whole airplane shaking nicely,” said one source.

ZA002 is close to beginning ground vibration testing at the head of the 787 line, two doors down from Dreamliner One. Because of the high level of static charge built up during the vibration testing, the wingtips, rudder and APU cone are draped in a wire mesh. These static discharge points on the aircraft connect to plywood and wire mesh that is underneath all parts of the aircraft, including the tires, to safely ground any electrical discharge. In addition, the engines are closed up and the flap canoes have been installed on the wings.

At the rear of 40-26, the wings for ZA100 were moved to the pre-integration area along side position one on Tuesday night using the ceiling crane system, usually reserved for the legacy aircraft programs. This was first time a ceiling crane has been used [to move major structure] on the 787 program, though Boeing maintains that there are no plans to incorporate the crane system into regular production operations. Boeing added that the crane provides factory flexibility and might occasionally be used to “transport a piece if that is the most efficient way to do it.”

UPDATE 11:22 PM ET:

Aviation Week’s Guy Norris reports that things are moving swiftly with daily developments across the six flight test aircraft in preparation for ZA001’s first flight:

Overnight
on Apl. 15, ZA001’s fuselage was loaded with ballast, an essential
pre-requisite for test flight. As well simple weights, the ballast
system will be made up of tanks which are filled with water for flight
tests.

Water
in the beer-keg like tanks, which on earlier test campaigns were often
adorned with labels from local breweries, is used to simulate
passenger, cargo and interior loads. The water can also be pumped
forward and aft within the aircraft via a system of interconnecting
pipes to produce various center of gravity conditions for specific
flight test conditions.

He adds that preparations are also underway on ZA005 and ZA006 for their respective first flights to certify the GEnx powered Dreamliners:

Work
to prepare for flight tests is also ramping up in “ZA Zero” – the 787
integrated test vehicle, and systems testing complex located close by
Boeing Field. Using the flight deck engineering cab, or e-cab, flight
test teams spent yesterday and today (Apl 16), going through dry-runs
of the first flights of ZA005 and ZA006, the first two aircraft to be
powered by General Electric’s GEnx-1B engine. Current work on ZA005’s
first flight rehearsal is focused on aspects such as engine operating
characteristics, while the ZA006 team is believed to be running through
aborted take-off procedures and simulations.

Mr. Norris is unofficially the Dean of Boeing commercial airplane flight test reporting, his blog – packed with his vast institutional knowledge – is one to watch for 787 coverage.

ZA001 is progressing toward, but has not yet begun, the factory gauntlet, according to sources familiar with the progress. The aircraft has been jacked up recently and has been undergoing gear swing and flap extension and retraction testing. The aircraft is cordoned off for testing and there are fewer people around the aircraft than in previous weeks.

Other program sources indicate that the start of the factory gauntlet should begin later this week, but roll out to the flight line appears to have slipped until after the aircraft is declared shop complete later this month following the tests.

The first set of production 787 wings arrived in Everett on April 14th painted white and were unloaded early in the evening from the LCF. They were first seen painted in Japan over the summer and are lighter than the previous six pairs that arrived for the flight test aircraft due to incorporated weight savings and the lack of flight test equipment packed inside. The aft fuselage could also be arriving in Everett as early as week’s end as well.

In addition, airplane seven (JA801A), which will be the first Dreamliner delivered to All Nippon Airways, now wears the internal designation of ZA100 instead of ZA007. The change came after the delivery order shifted early 787s to the Japanese airline.

It’s odd to begin a discussion about an industry upswing days after Boeing joined Airbus, Bombardier and Embraer in cutting aircraft production amid an “unprecedented” downturn. All are struggling and airlines and lessors are making it clear that battening down the hatches and shrinking capacity, not growing it, is the safest course through the storm.

Holding off on orders is a safe bet for the worlds airlines, but with 2757 orders in 2007 and over 1400 last year, it appears airlines are just tapped out more than anything. Now they wait for their aircraft to be built. Airbus and Boeing can point to their strong backlogs as evidence of the order frenzy.

Both Airbus and Boeing can claim various superlatives with the
launch of 787 and A350. The job for both is getting them fully designed, built, flown,
certified and delivered. Though, 787 in some ways is holding itself and its chief competitor in limbo right now.

Airbus is waiting to see what happens with
787 before they firm up A350 details while Boeing waits on the A350
before figuring out what to do with a 777 refresh. All the while,
engineering resources are not committed to 737/A320 replacements, pushing entry into service past 2020.

Though, something curious happened this past quarter that deserves
recognition. Bombardier earned more orders for CSeries (50) than Boeing
(22) and Airbus (23) did in combined gross orders. If you make it net
orders, the total between the two titans is only four.

Yes, both firm orders for CSeries were expected last year, yet even with the onset of the recession, they still materialized. Though, the demand for a new narrowbody is there, with Southwest getting antsy, Air France/KLM pining for a replacement to their A320/737s, US Airways ready for a 757 successor and SAS and Air Canada jumping in as well to discuss fleet replacement. That’s five airline in the last 10 days alone.

Add those five customers to American and United calling for replacements from Airbus and Boeing and you’re talking about some of the largest narrowbody customers in the world.

Though, Boeing keenly understands the virtue of launching an aircraft in a downmarket, a strategy that Bombardier and Embraer are taking to heart.
Both 777 and 787 were forged out of the recessions of the early 90s and
post-9/11, respectively.

By most estimates, the next upswing for the global economy should be in full effect by 2013, right when CSeries will be coming online. For Airbus and Boeing, A320 and 737 will still be prominently in the picture. Is a mid-life refresh enough to hold the market until 2020?

Embraer, which has already said they wouldn’t be pressured into the larger narrowbody market, is laying the groundwork for future plans. Embraer President and CEO Frederico Fleury Curado said the manufacturer will make a decision in the next 18-24 months regarding entry into the 150-seat market, going head-to-head-to-head-to-head with Bombardier, Airbus and Boeing.

The case against CSeries made by Airbus and Boeing centers on the abandonment of commonality and airplane support long built up by a combined 70+ years in the narrowbody market and the extended presence of A320/737 family aircraft in airline fleets.

Though, for Embraer, Air France, KLM, Air Canada, US Airways and United all operate E-Jets, many in mainline service, would their experience here nullify that argument?

While Boeing and Airbus are laser focused on the long-range twin
market, their smaller Canadian and Brazilian counterparts are moving
in to fill the void. Though, not long too long ago Boeing was planning for a 2012-2015 entry into service
for its narrowbody replacement. Yet, for Airbus and Boeing, CSeries is
still perceived as a fly buzzing around the head of the giants.

“The only way airlines can get that leverage back is if the Bombardier CSeries becomes a big success,” says Richard Aboulafia.

For
Boeing and Airbus, what’s the tipping point? That psychological and
strategic tripwire that signals a genuine threat to their duopoly? Malcolm Gladwell might say 150 orders. What about a certain blue-chip customer putting a stamp of approval on a new aircraft type?

Boeing and Airbus have become accustomed to looking to their left and right to see the competitive landscape. What about a glance in the rear view mirror?

Firsts & Lasts
This week, the final 747-400ERF will move to the flight line, followed possibly later this week by Dreamliner One after it completes the factory gauntlet.

Eye on QANTAS
Signs point to some kind of announcement on the QANTAS/Jetstar fleet as early as Tuesday, though it remains to be seen what the content of such an announcement would be regarding future fleet planning and potential 787 deferrals.

Troubled Skies
NPR is running a five part series on the state of the US aviation all week. Part one covers the cuts in airline capacity and where all the planes are ending up and the unexpected results. The most interesting fact from the first part is that, somewhat unsurprisingly, fewer planes have resulted in fewer delays and fewer lost bags. When the ATC system is finally upgraded to handle more planes, don’t worry, they’ll still lose your bags.

US Airways A330-200
Delta isn’t the only US major adding widebody aircraft to its fleet. US Airways first A330-200 is floating around Toulouse and is curiously powered by Rolls-Royce engines rather than the Pratt & Whitney engines that power their first nine -300s. This is US Airways first new widebody aircraft since 2001.

777F Cargo Operators
LAN is expected to take delivery of its first 777F this week, while the first 777F is back out on the flight line following re-registration and painting as F-GUOA.  The aircraft is white and has not received the Air France livery – and appears that this is the first of the French carrier’s deferred 777s. AeroLogic’s first 777F is also on the flight line as well.

This week’s Movie Monday is considerably shorter than usual, though it comes directly from Boeing. As part of its preparations for first flight, Boeing has produced an updated animated rendering of the Dreamliner, the first new one in years. This post is its first appearance on the internet. The animation was provided to me along with other footage for a much larger project I’m working on called The Dreamliner Primer, taking you through the program and giving a detailed overview of what it takes to build a 787. It should be ready in the coming weeks as first flight approaches. Make sure to watch the animation in HD.

Special thanks to Boeing for the clip.

Okay, I don’t think Extreme Adrenaline Friday is going to be a regular thing here at FlightBlogger, but this was too amazing not to share. For the next 3 minutes and 44 seconds, make sure your jaw is in its upright and locked position, because this is pretty ridiculous. Nothing said by me will do the video justice. Just watch.

wingsuit base jumping from Ali on Vimeo.

Responding to what it calls “significant deterioration in the business environment”, Boeing will cut 777 production rates by nearly 30% by the middle of 2010 and will delay planned increases on the 747-8 and 767 production lines.

Key points:

• 777 production cut from 7/month to 5/month – 29% cut by June 2010.
• 767 and 747-8 rate increases will be delayed.
• 737 unaffected by current cuts.

The cuts are due to:

• “delivery deferrals requested by customers in response to
  unprecedented declines in global passenger and air-cargo.”

Overall impact means:

• Boeing overall 1Q09 earnings will be reduced by 38 cents per share. 31 cents of it is attributable to the 747 program being in a loss position.
• The remaining 7 cents comes from lower margins on deliveries on other commercial programs.
• No cancellations on 747, 777 or 767. A Boeing spokesperson added that there were no 737 cancellations as well.

Photo Credit Boeing