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Is the airline crisis of 2008 worse than the economic aftermath of September 11, 2001?

Yes, absolutely.

9/11 was a crisis of confidence in the safety of air travel. Airlines simply couldn’t fill their planes. The 2008 crisis is far more serious. The psychological injury of 9/11 has since healed and empty planes and cheap gas has given way to very full planes and the most expensive gas in US history.

The crisis cuts even deeper now because access to new sources of revenue aren’t available when planes are already full. Instead we see higher ticket prices or new fees on first bags, second bags, legroom, food, curb-side check-in and soon seatbelt usage (snark). Eventually, the price of flying will become so prohibitively high that the bottom of the market may just fall out completely. The upper level of tolerance for ticket prices is not clear yet, but it will run out eventually, and when it does leisure travel is going to take a major hit, only further slowing the economy.

Just as 9/11 saw the retirement of 737-200s, 727s, 747-200s, DC-9s, 10s and L1011s, the crisis we find ourselves in today has 737 classics, the remaining DC-9s and soon MD-80s on the chopping block. Also, once the new generation of mid-size wide-body aircraft enter service at the end of next year, the older 767s will be retired.

So, as the fuel crisis for airlines only gets worse, the three options (the good, the bad and the ugly) merging, cutting capacity or declaring bankruptcy is the only way forward.

Struggling airlines invariably mean struggling manufacturers. Or does it?

The big four (Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier and Embraer) – B.A.B.E. – consider it coined – all have huge backlogs to fall back on if orders dry up.  However this crisis should give them all pause to ask themselves if their product lines are prepared for the painful market dynamics ahead. All would likely answer yes, but here’s a few thoughts for the road ahead.

In mid-May, Boeing 787 Vice President and General Manager Pat Shanahan expected the crucial power-on milestone to be a “photo finish” for Dreamliner One, but affirmed the milestone was “on track” for the end of June. With the end of June just three and a half weeks away, the final path to 787 power-on is in sight.

According to program sources familiar with the schedule, the “photo finish” assessment is apt with the pace of working tracking closely to, or narrowly behind, where it needs to be, though major progress for Dreamliner One has picked up in recent weeks.

Power-on, according to several 787 program sources, is targeted for the middle of this month, though Boeing has built in a buffer to utilize the entire month of June for preparations if needed.

David Hess, President of Hamilton Sundstrand told a group of reporters, including FlightBlogger, visiting its Rockford, Il facility earlier this week that, “The power-on software is done and delivered, [Boeing’s] got 100% of the hardware and software they need for power on.”

“I fully expect [Boeing] to achieve that milestone by the end of the month,” Hess declared.

According to Hamilton Sundstrand, the ” full-up red label” power-on software build was delivered May 28. On the same day, Hamilton Sundstrand also delivered the first “blue label” Safety of Flight software build for additional lab testing to Boeing.

The power-on software differs from the Safety of Flight software because the power-on software is only intended for us in ground testing and does not require equipment such as the engines to be installed. Hamilton Sundstrand anticipates further changes to the Safety of Flight software as it matures in preparation for first flight. The more finalized Safety of Flight software build is to be delivered to Boeing in the next 30 days.

Hess added that for Hamilton Sundstrand, the pacing item continues to be software development, though progress was steady.

“A month ago Boeing was pretty uncomfortable with the risk levels as they looked at our schedules as to what we had to get done. Not that we were delaying the program, but if they look out ahead of us, they had some concerns in terms of the risk levels and the amount of software work we had complete in the coming months. Now we’ve since had reviews with them, shown them schedules, and I think they’re, and I wouldn’t say comfortable, but I think we’ve shown them a plan that supports their program and we’re executing the plan.”

Shanahan told reporters in mid-May that at the time he was still waiting on items from Hamilton Sundstrand for Dreamliner One.

“I told my friend Mr. Hess, I’ll give you the best meal you’ve ever had if you get [the power supply] to me by the end of June”, Shanahan said of Hess.

Hess tells FlightBlogger that he and Shanahan had been exchanging emails in recent days regarding their deal and that, “it was time for Pat to get out his wallet.”

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Boeing has broken the 900 order mark for its hot-selling 787 Dreamiliner, according to a report from Flight’s Air Transport Intelligence.

The firm order for 12 787s, was announced in Istanbul by Saudi Arabian Airlines. The order also includes 8 Airbus A330 aircraft.

Saudi Arabian Airlines General Director Khalid Al Molhem said no engine selection has been made, though the General Electric GEnx engine is being given strong consideration.

The passing of the 900 order mark again affirms the 787’s status as the fastest selling commercial aircraft in history. The order, when officially announced by Boeing and Saudi Arabian, is expected to bring the 787 firm order total to 908.

UPDATE: Saudi Arabian Airlines indicated that the order would come from a combination of leased and purchased aircraft. No lessor was specified. Though Boeing needs just four newly purchased 787s to pass 900 orders. The order total currently stands at 896.

Q: How much wing could wing flex flex, if wing flex could flex wings?

A quick look at any artist’s rendering of the 787 in flight, the eye is immediately drawn to the wings which look, by many accounts, ready to flap like a bird. One common question that has frequently been posed is whether or not when this aircraft takes to the sky, will wing flex do for 787 what the hump did for 747?

Only time will tell on that question, yet, I wanted take a closer at the wing flex issue.

The first issue I wanted to tackle was to ask the question, “Just how much are those wings really flexing in those pictures?”

I found my answer with a little help from Photoshop and the Boeing 787 Airport Planning Document. I overlaid the neutral position of the wings on top of the stylized rendering seen above. The results were surprising, the wing flex we see in the renderings of the Dreamliner comes out to roughly 10 feet.

There is no universal amount of flex to be expected in the wing, though a deflection of 10 feet doesn’t appear beyond the realm of possibilities. However, this is really dependent on a number of factors, including (but not limited to) the g loads on the wing, as well as the weight and attitude of the aircraft.

Taking the idea one step farther, last week 787 Vice President of Engineering and Technology Randy Harley told a group of reporters that the wings would deflect a full 26 feet when 150% of the maximum loads were applied to the 787 wings. As a required by the FAA, all commercial aircraft must be able to withstand at least three seconds of 150% expected maximum loads on all major structures. For a historical comparison in January 1995, the 777’s wings deflected 24 feet at 154% max load before they snapped in spectacular fashion.

Boeing hasn’t said publicly how much they expect the 787 wings to flex before they break. A final decision is expected early next year as to whether or not to break the full-scale wings on ZY997, the static airframe, which is parked at 40-23 for testing.

Yet, a full-scale breakage of ZY997 could be very revealing. If the wing withstands loads well above 150%, then it’s an important indicator that the wing could be too strong and not require as much internal structure allowing for both future growth and valuable weight savings.

Former 787 Program Manager Mike Bair speculated in jest that during a wing break test the wingtips could possibly touch above the fuselage. Whatever the result of the test is, wingtip contact or not, the world is anxiously awaiting the abandonment of artist renderings in favor of the sight of flexing wings lifting the 787 Dreamliner into the sky for the first time.

Original image courtesy of Boeing, edits by FlightBlogger

This post was intended to be my final post from France, however battery life and flight departure times got the best of me. After the A380 Production Update I posted two weeks ago, I wanted to provide an inside look at the Final Assembly Line (FAL) of the world’s largest commercial passenger aircraft.

Approaching the massive building at the north end of Blagnac airport, what becomes immediately apparent is the shear scale of the venture being undertaken. I couldn’t help but feel like something big lives here…and it does.

Walking through an unassuming door into the cavernous facility, my attention was immediately drawn to the nose fuselage section of MSN025 an Emirates A380 destined for delivery in 2009. It arrived in Toulouse on April 23 and was waiting patiently in front of the body join tooling that was surrounding MSN034 (Singapore Airlines), which, at the time, was receiving its wings.

The parts for MSN034 had arrived in the same convoy in late April as well. The aircraft has had its horizontal stabilizer installed and was awaiting its pylons, winglets or vertical tail to be joined.

Off to the left of the nose was MSN025’s aft fuselage surrounded by scaffolding undergoing pre-integration. It was positioned in front of the port wing of MSN019, another A380 for Singapore Airlines which, according to Airbus, was undergoing rewiring in preparation for its move outside to the flight line.

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I figure I might as well do some good old fashion airplane spotting up at Everett this afternoon. The craziness of the last few days finally allows me a min to breathe, so I’ll be spending the midday hours at the grassy knoll outside the Future of Flight Museum and the Hilton.

If you’re in the area from about 11:30-1pm (Thursday) pacific time, stop by, say hello and look at some brand new airplanes.

What I can do with an iSight and a wireless connection:

Air France 777-300ER Rejected Take Off Test

This little experiment gave me a lot of ideas for how to cover 787 first flight later this year.

EVERETT — Amid celebration for the official debut of the 777 Freighter, Boeing said it would be prepared to offer a 787 Freighter if the market demanded it.

Tom Crabtree, regional director of business strategy for Boeing Commercial Airplanes, discussed the potential of the composite jetliner to become a freighter aircraft in the future.

“Long term, we have designed provisions into the [787 Dreamliner] when the
market demands it, to allow that aircraft to become a freighter.” said Crabtree.

“We worked with the initial design…about 5 years ago during the initial sizing of the airplane, developing the market requirements of what that airplane would look like.”

Crabtree added that the 787 was designed with the future accommodation of a cargo door in mind.

“In terms of designing a jet freighter in the future, we have routed the systems such that area where the main deck door would go, are clear of any reroutings, say, electrical or hydraulic lines.”

Crabtree cited a similar timeline to that of the 767-300F when speculating about the potential availability of a 787 Freighter, which first entered service in October 1995 after making its debut as a passenger airplane in 1982.

Furthermore, Boeing is expecting the 777 Freighter to enter service in the fourth quarter of this year with Air France, slightly more than thirteen years after beginning passenger service with United Airlines in 1995.

In keeping with the historical time frame of past Boeing freighter programs, the market could potentially see the availability of a 787 Freighter in the 2019-2024 time frame.

Final Assembly Begins on First Boeing 787 Dreamliner

EVERETT, Wash., May 21, 2007 — Final assembly of the all-new Boeing [NYSE: BA] 787 Dreamliner began today with a ceremony in Everett, Wash.

“Today
we begin assembling the first airplane of a new generation,” said Scott
Strode, 787 vice president of Airplane Definition and Production. “The
787 not only will revolutionize air travel, it represents a new way of
building airplanes.”

With 568 firm orders from 44
airlines, the 787 is the fastest-selling new airplane in aviation
history. The 787 production system was designed using Lean
manufacturing techniques in a simplified final assembly process.

Dreamliner One

Dreamliner Two

Dreamliner Three

I sat down with Addison Schonland at IAG amid yesterday’s very busy 787 Media Day to discuss the goings-on of the Dreamliner Final Assembly & Delivery Line. Keep an ear out for a first flight timeline.

Take a listen.

Other great coverage of the day:

Seattle Times

Boeing provides first look inside 787

By Dominic Gates

Seattle Post-Intelligencer

Boeing touts 787 progress

By James Wallace

Photo Gallery

The Australian
Dreamliner meets Dreamtime in Territory tests

By Steve Creedy

Associated Press

‘Power on’ milestone nears for Boeing’s 787

By Jessica Mintz
 

BREAKING

Flight has confirmed that Boeing has received a letter of intent to purchase its 747-8i from a second airline customer.

UPDATE: The letter of intent was signed today by Nigeria’s Arik for three 747-8i and seven 737s. The variant of the 737s will be either -800 or -900, but has not yet been determined.

Details to follow