NAGOYA — Not long ago, I wrote about Boeing’s 300-seat dilemma and what to do about its declining share of the 777-200ER sized aircraft market. The ascent of the A350-900 had blunted sales for the 301-seat jet, while Boeing’s customers swiftly shifted their buying patterns to the larger 365-seat 777-300ER. It appeared judging by the sales figures alone that Boeing had abandoned the -200ER, allowing its -200LR to exist as a ultra-long range niche.
Though let me suggest an alternate line of thought. Boeing has already replaced the 777-200ER and its name is the 787-9. Boeing marketeers would say that the 787-9 and 777-200ER sit next to one another in the product family and that a conceptual 787-10, a further stretch, would best fill the role of the -200ER.
While the sales numbers tell one story, the actual specifications of the 787-9 tell a very different one. Let’s start in the cabin.
While the 777-200ER airframe is 209ft 1in (63.73m) long, compared to 206ft 1in (62.82m) for the 787-9, passenger cabins are virtually identical with only 23in (59cm) difference in length. While its not a perfect comparison with requirements for lavs and galleys, as well as space around exits, a cross-section that provides nine-abreast seating on both aircraft can provide similar layouts with a 3.2in narrower aisle and 1.3in narrower seat on the -9.
Boeing says that the majority of 787 customers have selected nine-abreast seating in economy, allowing them to go to a near-777-style configuration. At eight or nine-abreast seating in economy, Boeing has created a platform that may be able to compete directly with both the A350-800 and -900. Yes, it snug at nine-abreast, and yes you may lose a row or two in the process, but now let’s get under those composite floor grids for the next comparison.
The forward cargo volume of the 787-9 is identical, yes identical, to the 777-200ER. There is room for 2,490sq ft which can accomodate 6 96x125in pallets. In the back of the aircraft, the 787-9 can fit 16 LD-3 containers compared to 14 on the 777-200ER, a difference of 320sq ft. Put simply, belly space is room for revenue that doesn’t require a meal and whatever is lost in the cabin can be compensated for underneath.
Now a quick look at performance. Assuming nearly equivalent passenger counts and an increased cargo capacity, the 787-9, a lighter airframe than the -200ER, can fly 8,135nm compared to 7,725nm for the -200ER on 14,220 11,792 fewer gallons of fuel.
ANA’s conversion of 15 787-8s to -9s for high-density domestic operations may be a good indicator of the start of a more overt trend toward replacing the -200 and -200ER sized aircraft with the -9. ANA plans to configure the 787-9s with around 400-seats and while not directly stated, the only other 400-seat domestic configuration in the carrier’s fleet is the 777-200 with 418-seats in two-classes.
By 2013 when the 787-9 enters service, ANA’s average 777-200, of which the carrier has 16, will be approaching 15 years old. A 777-200 operating in domestic configuration for short hops has significantly more cycles than a -200 or -200ER operating on long-haul missions, causing ANA’s -200s to age considerably faster.
As the 787-9 gains more clairty into 2011, we could see Boeing shift the larger Dreamliner into a spot once reserved for the 777-200ER. By all outward appearances the configuration of the aircraft points to its future ambition.
This post was originally published to the internet between 2007 and 2012. Links, images, and embedded media from that era may no longer function as intended.
This post originally appeared at Flightglobal.com from 2007 to 2012.
