Tag: FlightBlogger Archive

When it first announced orders for 200 jets at the 2007 Dubai Air Show, Dubai Aerospace Enterprise (DAE) grabbed headlines with its ambitious goal of becoming a massive Middle Eastern aerospace node, supplying aircraft to the region’s rapidly growing fleets. The $27.2 billion deal was one of the largest in aviation history and embodied the seemingly endless demand from the region for commercial aircraft.

This week brought the realities of a shaky global economy to the forefront with the cancellation by DAE of 50 aircraft spread across four aircraft types from Boeing and Airbus. While Boeing and Airbus remain mum on the cancellations, the numbers tell the story. Airbus, reduced its DAE orders for the A350 XWB by seven to 23, and its A320 orders by 18 to 52, a $3 billion backlog hit.

Boeing’s DAE listing on its order and deliveries website no longer show the 777-300ER and 787 orders booked in by the carrier, along with the airframer’s undisclosed cancellation for 10 777-300ERs and 15 787s. Additionally, the listing also shows the sale/leaseback of 747-8Fs and 777Fs shifted from Emirates Sky Cargo to the DAE. Overall, DAE has slashed that 200 aircraft order by 25% amid its shaky financial status.
Scott Hamilton at Leeham Co. has a fascinating chart mapping DAE’s deliveries over the next decade using data from Ascend. DAE’s deliveries grow steadily, rising toward 2017, peaking at 55 then come down sharply by 2019. Yet that anticipated steady growth leading up to that peak is what really matters.

What happens to the remaining orders in its near term backlog is somewhat unclear, but with production rates rising on virtually every Boeing and Airbus assembly line in the years to come and any sign of cracking in demand from the Middle East could trouble the waters for commercial aircraft manufacturers. 

Flight International penned a commentary shortly after the DAE order was announced in November 2007, asking some less-than-popular questions about the rapid regional growth and whether or not its grand ambition was truly sustainable. While the fleet and traffic growth of the region’s airlines has continued unabated, nearly three years later, the comments ring eerily prophetic:

As more and more prospectors join this latter-day gold rush, the question few dare to ask is: can it all be sustainable? What would the effect be of a major Islamist terrorist attack on Dubai’s image as the anything-goes, safe and prosperous Switzerland of the Middle East – and thus the growth trajectory of Emirates? What happens if the US credit crisis causes a slowdown in Asian economies – the expansion of which is driving much Gulf-based cargo traffic? Despite all the new airlines emerging the wider region, are there really enough takers for yet another leasing company with a fleet in the hundreds of aircraft? And, if the business is there, why are the likes of GECAS and ILFC not already plugging that gap?

These did not seem to be matters troubling the Dubai air show’s big spenders last week, who are so bullish about their market predictions and their abilities to meet them that sceptics seem like wild-eyed prophets in the wilderness.

A little Friday laugh for everyone as The Onion tries its hand at aerospace journalism, and single-handedly wins the week.

Boeing Lays Off Only Guy Who Knows How To Keep Wings On Plane
August 6, 2010 | ISSUE 46•31

CHICAGO–With the airline industry continuing to suffer under the ongoing recession, the Boeing Company was forced Monday to lay off Al Freedman, the only guy left at the corporation who knows how to keep wings from falling off planes. “We used to have a whole team of engineers who knew how to make the wings stay on, but those days are long gone,” Boeing CEO James McNerney, Jr. said. “We’ll make it work, though. The wings are not necessarily the most important part of the plane, anyway.” McNerney added that at least they were able to save the job of the guy who knows how to prevent jet engines from exploding.

When Boeing first envisioned its 787 final assembly line, it sought to eliminate its reliance on overhead cranes to move large structural assemblies into join positions to promote the leanest possible manufacturing environment. For the first several aircraft the company assembled this was the case. Initially, the 787’s wings were slid along the floor of the 40-26 building into position for final body join, however according to its 787 action movie trailer “We Build The Dream“, overhead cranes are now being used to moved the 787’s wings from laydown to wing-to-body join.

The change, which factory sources say was implemented in the Spring of 2009 was initially denied by Boeing, which maintained that overhead cranes were not a part of the 787 assembly plan. The airframer’s own video paints a different picture, and is believed to rapidly accelerate the process of moving the wings into the wing-to-body join position.

Heavy speculation this week about the future of Cathay Pacific’s long-haul fleet plans came to an end this morning with an announcement by the Hong Kong-based carrier to order 30 A350-900 and six 777-300ER aircraft. When firmed, the A350 backlog will grow to 565 orders.

Every so often in this industry, an order comes along that could be considered a “game changer”, a moment that causes the players to stand up and evaluate the course of an aircraft program. It was seen when Singapore airlines ditched the MD-11 in favor of the A340-300 (pdf archive), and again when it ditched the A340-300 in favor of the 777. The 1996 United A320 deal was of the same ilk, with Boeing opting to launch the 737 Next Generation family in the face of growing narrowbody competition from Airbus.

Is this order cut from the same cloth? Will an A350-900 order of this magnitude sway Boeing’s thinking on how to address the future of the 777? Is Cathay’s order for the -300ER and not the A350-1000 also telling? Did Cathay seeing the -1000 the same way as Emirates’ Tim Clark does?

Photo Credit Airbus

Mary Kirby posted a series of photos this morning of the inside of Irkut’s MS-21 mock up from Farnborough. I did a double take when I saw the flight deck mock up, which at first glance appears to be a hybrid of Boeing and Airbus flight decks. The influence appears to be heavily weighted toward the 787, with its five primary display layout, vertical FMC keypad, and an overhead panel structure which is virtually the same shape. To a lesser exent this aircraft, however, features Airbys attributes, such as a sidestick and the same engine start switches as the A320. Perhaps imitation is the finest form of flattery?

Photo Credit Will Horton

Missing from Thomson Airways’ Farnborough unveiling of its new 787 interior was the total number of seats (I couldn’t find it if it is there) the carrier would be putting on the new twin jet. Using a graphic and a video the airline published along with its release, I did a little bit of math. Thomson, which will get its first of eight 787s in early 2012, will seat 288 passengers in a two-class configuration.

Of the airlines to share their plans for their interior configurations, Thomson will – by far – have the second highest capacity for its long-range 787 operations, after the two class 313-seat arrangement selected by Qantas’ Jetstar. Based on what Thomson has released thus far, it appears a forward Premium Economy cabin with seven-abreast seating will accomodate 47 passengers, with two rear nine-abreast zones featuring 150 and 91 seats, respectively.

Both cabins will feature Panasonic IFE and broadband connectivity and it appears the airline is the first 787 customer to disclose that they have selected the door two lit archway, which is presently an option on the aircraft.

Thomson is only the third carrier to disclose how it will be filling its 787s, with Ethiopian and Continental seating 270 and 228 in two-class business and economy configurations, respectively. British Airways is rumored to be seating as few as 183 in three classes, while 787 launch customer All Nippon Airways says it will have long-range and high-density configurations, declining to disclose the capacity of either.

Video and Photo Credit Thomson Airways

(UPDATE: I did a little more math and counted correctly this time. Total number of seats on board in 288 not 297, which still makes this the highest capacity 787 to-date for international

For the third time in two weeks, CFM (GE & Snecma) and GE have announced certification of new engine variants. Most recently on July 30, CFM was granted certification of the updated CFM56-7BE engine, which will enter service in mid-2011 on the Boeing 737.

The -7BE evolution engine will fly in the fourth quarter on a Continental 737-800, as Boeing looks to deliver at least 2% improvement in fuel burn to its existing single-aisle product line. The company test flew the new nacelle design in August 2009.

The engine features a revised high pressure turbine guide vane diffuser, improved high pressure turbine blades, disc and a revised forward outer seal, along with improvements low pressure turbine blades, vanes, discs and case.

While CFM outwardly states that the engine will contribute 1% improvement on its own, testing has found that the engine will deliver 1.6% improvement in fuel burn. An additional 1% will come from aerodynamic refinements to the exterior of the 737.

The CFM56-7BE engine is part of a host of improvements to the 737, which also include the Boeing Sky Interior, which will enter service with flyDubai, the first of 37 customers later this year. 

Additionally, General Electric announed certification of the GEnx-2B and CF34-10A engines for the Boeing 747-8 and Comac ARJ21 aircraft on July 22.

Graphic Credit CFM

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by Chris Heaton

While the airline is still mum on its plans on where to deploy its first of 55 787-8s, All Nippon Airways plans to configure the new twin for both long and short-range missions.