Why the week ahead could be the biggest of 2009

I’ll be reporting from Geneva all week as the European Business Aviation Convention & Exhibition (EBACE) unfolds. As the first major show of the year, EBACE should provide a good gauge of the ‘vital signs’ of the aerospace industry. 2009 has already been extremely painful, especially for business jet makers, though this week will provide a chance to see how the proverbial canary is fairing in the coal mine.

Though the news won’t be limited to just Geneva. There’s going to be an enormous amount of aerospace news coming in from across the globe.

Is it possible that the week ahead could be the biggest of 2009 for the aerospace industry? Perhaps even bigger than the Paris Air Show in June? I think so. Here’s why:

Vought
I’m going to call it this week’s wildcard. In the last several months, murmurs about a major change at Vought have been brewing. The company announced its first quarter earnings and the news was less
than stellar. The company finds itself at a crossroads as major
customers in their portfolio planned scaled back production or outright
suspension of new programs.

Lately those murmurs have gotten quite loud, indicating that some kind of announcement could come as early as this coming week. What that change looks like is very much unclear, though the company’s commercial and private aircraft portfolio may make it attractive to a large OEM or large supplier. This is one to watch.

Airbus
On Monday and Tuesday, Airbus will be hosting the technical media in Hamburg for Innovation Days (formerly the Technical Press Briefing) to provide comprehensive updates on the European airframer’s product line. Expect major program updates on A350 XWB and A380, as well as what could be some major announcements about performance enhancements for the A320. After Boeing’s 737 announcement last week, it is believed that Airbus could respond with its own package of upgrades that could include winglets and other aircraft changes (read:GTF) on for its narrowbody fleet.

Boeing
With ZA001 fueled, the week ahead could see the first 787 running under its own power. As progress pushes ahead towards first flight, the auxiliary power unit in the aircraft’s tail cone could be spun up for the first time, followed by the twin Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 engines.

Here in Geneva, there could be some additional movement on the 747-8I front. The first customer is not Lufthansa, but a VIP operator. Is it an industrial mogul of some kind or a government? The answer could shed some additional light on where this new 747 program is headed.

Gulfstream
We’ll be getting major updates on the G650 and G250
programs which are both just months away from their respective first
flights. All signs point to both programs being on track with major
parts getting ready for final assembly. Also, what does the company have to say about a supersonic
business jet?

Embraer
The Brazilian airframer has brought its first Lineage 1000 here to EBACE and Flight will be [hopefully] getting a close look inside at the custom interior for its first public presentation. We’ll also be getting major updates on the Phenom 300 flight test program, as well as the  development of Legacy 500 and 450 aircraft.